The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a reality that’s hard to believe in the Patrick Mahomes era: missing the playoffs. Even if they run the table the rest of the way, the odds are stacked against them. At 6-7, they’re sitting 10th in the AFC playoff race, and according to ESPN Analytics, their postseason chances are hanging by a thread at just 11.4%.
This is unfamiliar territory for a franchise that’s been the gold standard in recent years. But if you’re looking for the biggest reason the Chiefs are where they are, start with the close games - or rather, the lack of success in them.
Kansas City is just 1-6 in one-score games this season. That’s a stunning drop-off for a team that went 11-0 in those situations last year on their way to a 15-2 record and another Super Bowl appearance.
In 2022, they were the team that finished games. In 2025, they’re the team that can’t quite close.
There’s also been a noticeable shift up front. The offensive line, once a steady force, has taken a hit after the team traded away All-Pro guard Joe Thuney to the Bears.
Injuries haven’t helped either. Protection has been inconsistent, and it’s affected everything - from Mahomes’ timing to the rhythm of the offense.
Mahomes himself admitted this is uncharted ground. “We’re in unprecedented territory,” he said this week.
“I think you lean on the guys that have battled through adversity and came out better on the other side. That’s Chris [Jones], Travis [Kelce], all of these guys that have won championships.
It hasn’t always been pretty, but it’ll really test us to see what type of character we have. I think we got the guys in the room to do it.”
That belief is crucial, but belief alone won’t fix the drops - and there have been plenty. The Chiefs lead the league with 24 drops this season, despite the talent in the receiving corps and, of course, Kelce at tight end.
Last week’s loss to the Texans was a microcosm of the season: six drops, including a costly one from Kelce that turned into a game-sealing interception late in the fourth quarter. That’s not just a stat - that’s a momentum killer.
Defensively, the Chiefs haven’t been bad, but they haven’t been quite good enough either. The pass rush has struggled to consistently get home.
Against Houston, they played with urgency and made life uncomfortable for rookie QB C.J. Stroud, but not uncomfortable enough to flip the result.
Now, every game is a must-win. The Chiefs head into a Week 15 showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers with their season hanging in the balance.
A win bumps their playoff odds slightly to 17.2%. A loss, and the math gets even uglier.
For a team that’s used to being the hunter - or more often, the hunted - this version of the Chiefs is learning what it’s like to scrape and claw just to stay in the fight. They’ve still got Mahomes, Kelce, and Jones.
They’ve still got championship DNA. But they’re going to need to summon every ounce of it to keep this season alive.