The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2026 season with their Super Bowl 61 outlook still sitting in a pretty strong spot, even after a year that went sideways fast. Their opener doesn’t come until Monday Night Football against the rival Denver Broncos, but the long NFL wait is over, and the oddsmakers clearly haven’t buried Kansas City.
That’s notable because the 2025 season was a rough one by Chiefs standards. They finished 6-11, missed the playoffs for just the second time since Andy Reid became head coach, and posted their first losing record since 2012.
Patrick Mahomes did suffer a torn ACL, but that came late in the Week 15 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, when the Chiefs were already 6-7 and staring at the end of the road. Six of those seven defeats came by seven points or fewer, and the other was a 10-point loss to the Houston Texans.
Even with all that baggage, Kansas City is still getting respect in the betting market. The Chiefs are listed at +1600 to win Super Bowl 61, which puts them fifth overall and third among AFC teams. Only the Los Angeles Rams (+500), Buffalo Bills (+1000), Baltimore Ravens (+1000), and defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks (+1200) sit ahead of them.
Here’s the full picture of the odds for Super Bowl 61 and conference champions, with the game set for SoFi Stadium on February 14, 2027:
Team
Super Bowl 61
AFC
NFC
Los Angeles Rams
+500
+290
Buffalo Bills
+1000
+500
Baltimore Ravens
+1000
+520
Seattle Seahawks
+1200
+600
Kansas City Chiefs
+1600
+780
Philadelphia Eagles
+1700
+850
Los Angeles Chargers
+1700
+830
Cincinnati Bengals
+1800
+850
New England Patriots
+1800
+870
Houston Texans
+1800
+870
Detroit Lions
+1900
+930
San Francisco 49ers
+1900
+950
Green Bay Packers
+2000
+1050
Denver Broncos
+2000
+970
Chicago Bears
+2400
+1250
Dallas Cowboys
+2500
+1250
Jacksonville Jaguars
+3000
+1500
Pittsburgh Steelers
+5000
+2400
Minnesota Vikings
+5000
+2400
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+5500
+2200
Washington Commanders
+6000
+3000
Indianapolis Colts
+6000
+3000
New York Giants
+7000
+3500
New Orleans Saints
+9000
+4000
Carolina Panthers
+9000
+4000
Tennessee Titans
+13000
+5500
Atlanta Falcons
+13000
+5200
Las Vegas Raiders
+15000
+6600
New York Jets
+20000
+9000
Cleveland Browns
+20000
+9000
Miami Dolphins
+35000
+16000
Arizona Cardinals
+50000
+20000
What stands out is that Kansas City’s current number is actually its worst of the offseason, at least in the looks the source tracked. The Chiefs opened at +1500 right after the Seahawks beat the Patriots in Super Bowl 60. That was only enough for a tie for ninth overall and a tie for fourth in the AFC, though Mahomes’ recovery timeline was still a mystery then.
After the first wave of free agency, the Chiefs were still at +1500. They had added Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, but also lost a bunch of defensive pieces. Even so, the number held steady, and that put Kansas City tied for fifth overall and third in the AFC behind only Baltimore and Buffalo at +900 apiece.
The draft didn’t move the number either. Kansas City stayed at +1500 then as well, again landing in third among AFC teams.
Now the Chiefs are at +1600, and while that is technically a step back from where they’ve been all offseason, it still shows the market hasn’t lost faith in a quick rebound. Mahomes being on track for Week 1 obviously helps.
So does Walker’s arrival. But there are still plenty of questions.
The offensive line has to prove it can be a top-10 group, and the receiver room didn’t really change much one way or the other. On defense, Steve Spagnuolo has earned a reputation for making things work, but losing Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, and others could make this a tougher fix than usual. Kansas City also drew one of the hardest schedules in the league.
For now, though, the number is the number, and the Chiefs are still being treated like a team with real bounce-back potential. Whether they justify that comes down to what happens on the field. And that part is about to start.
In Other News...
Chiefs Suddenly Have A Massive Week 1 Concern On Defense
The Chiefs defensive plans for Week 1 took a late hit Friday when Chris Jones popped up on the injury report with a calf issue after not appearing there the day before. Jones was listed as limited in practice, which is enough to raise eyebrows given how central he is to Kansas Citys front and how much the unit leans on him in big divisional games.
Kansas City now has to wait until Saturdays practice to get a better read on where he stands before finalizing his game status for the season opener against the Broncos. For a defense already trying to set its tone early, any uncertainty around Jones is the kind of development that changes the conversation fast. [Read more 🡒]
Taylor Swift May Miss Kelces Opener As Bigger Chiefs Question Looms
The Chiefs are headed toward another season in the spotlight, and not just because of what happens on the field. Taylor Swift is facing a scheduling conflict between the Emmy Awards ceremony and Kansas Citys season opener, which could keep her from being at the game as Travis Kelce and the rest of the team begin the year. Even beyond that opening-week question, the broader picture around her presence has become part of the conversation again.
A Hollywood insider also reported that Swift has decided not to move to Kansas City, despite having no current tour or event obligations, a choice that suggests she will keep some distance from Kelce during the NFL season. There is still the possibility she could travel for some games, but for the Chiefs, it adds another layer to a year in which the off-field storyline will follow the on-field one wherever it goes. [Read more 🡒]
Chiefs Left Tackle Worry Just Grew With Latest Veteran Twist
The Chiefs left tackle situation was already a concern, and the latest move around D.J. Humphries only adds another layer to it. Washington released the veteran tackle just two weeks after signing him, a reminder of how quickly the veteran market can shift for a position group that is already thin and hard to stabilize.
Kansas City is still expected to turn to rookie Kahlil Benson on the blind side because of injuries and roster moves, even with the obvious questions that come with asking a newcomer to handle that job. Humphries had previously been tried out by the Chiefs without sticking, and with his injury history still part of the evaluation, he does not look like an easy fix for a problem that keeps hanging over the offense. [Read more 🡒]