The national pickers are leaning Denver, but not by much as the Chiefs finally get their season underway Monday night at Arrowhead Stadium.
Kansas City’s opener comes in the first “Monday Night Football” game of the season, with kickoff set for 7:15 p.m. on KMBC (Ch. 9) and ESPN in Kansas City. ESPN2 will carry the “ManningCast.”
Across the prediction landscape, 67 national experts were asked to call Chiefs-Broncos, and the Broncos got the edge overall. That doesn’t mean the Chiefs are getting buried.
Far from it. A lot of the forecasts are tight, one-score games that point to a competitive night in Kansas City.
The Sporting News’ Bill Bender has the Chiefs winning 26-20. In his reasoning, he pointed to “Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is back from a torn ACL - and it’s a tough matchup against Denver - which led the NFL with 68 sacks last season. The return of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and the addition of running back Kenneth Walker III should help - and Denver is 4-2 S/U against the Chiefs under Sean Payton.”
The Associated Press’ Rob Maaddi sees Denver taking it 23-20. His case includes this: “The Chiefs are coming off their first losing season under Andy Reid and they’ll need Mahomes at his best to return to power in the AFC West.
But he’s facing one of the NFL’s best defenses led by 2024 AP Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain and All-Pro Zach Allen. Bo Nix returns for the Broncos after an ankle injury forced him to miss the AFC championship game, a loss to New England.
Denver has won three in a row in the series and four of five after losing 16 straight.”
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio also has Kansas City on top, 20-17. He wrote: “It won’t be easy and they may need a few jump balls from the football gods, but it just feels like a great way for the Chiefs to turn the page on a surprisingly poor 2025 showing.”
NFL.com split its five writers, with three siding with Denver and two backing Kansas City. Jeremy Bergman picked the Broncos 23-16, Dan Parr had Denver 23-21, and Bobby Kownack went with the Broncos 22-21.
Gennaro Filice chose the Chiefs 19-17, while Brooke Cersosimo had Kansas City 23-20. Bergman framed the matchup this way: “There is so much intrigue going into this Week 1 finale that I’m almost embarrassed by my curiosity with the most overexposed NFL franchise of the past half-decade.
But that’s what Patrick Mahomes does. His absence magnifies his presence.
Could he actually be all the way back from last year’s devastating knee injury? Was 2025 the fluke of flukes or a harbinger of something worse to come for Andy Reid and friends?
Similarly for Denver, is Bo Nix all healed and ready to take Mahomes’ mantle as king of the division? Or was his first year atop the West an illusion of how things could be?
Monday night won’t provide definitive answers, but it should feature solid if unremarkable play for both sides.”
The Arizona Republic’s Jeremy Cluff is on Kansas City, 27-24. He wrote: “Sean Payton holds a 7-4 coaching record against Andy Reid, but Reid has had an entire offseason to get ready for this game. This one could be very interesting.”
ESPN’s panel tilted Denver’s way, with six of the 11 experts taking the Broncos: Jeremy Fowler, Kalyn Kahler, Moses Moody, Pamela Maldonado, Benjamin Solak and Seth Wickersham. The Chiefs got five picks from Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Jason Reid, Dan Graziano and Lindsey Thiry.
CBS Sports leaned the same direction, with five of seven writers choosing Denver: Jared Dubin, John Breech, Tyler Sullivan, Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg. Pete Prisco and Ryan Wilson picked the Chiefs, and Prisco had it 20-17.
His explanation: “This will be Patrick Mahomes in his first start since tearing his ACL. How limited will he be?
It won’t help he’s facing one of the best defenses in the league. The Chiefs will counter with a young defense that will try and slow down a good Denver offense.
At home, I think they do it. Mahomes wins it late.”
USA Today’s six writers were unanimous for the Broncos. Jarrett Bell had Denver 27-23, Nick Brinkerhoff 26-23, Chris Bumbaca 24-21, Nate Davis 27-20, Andy Kaufman 17-14 and Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz 27-17.
SB Nation’s nine writers leaned Kansas City, with five picking the Chiefs - James Dator, Jared Mueller, Brandon Gowton, R.J. Ochoa and Mark Schofield. The Broncos were the call for Mookie Alexander, David Fucillo, Ricky O’Donnell and Matthew Warren.
Sports Illustrated also went Denver-heavy, with five of eight writers choosing the Broncos: Albert Breer, Eva Geitheim, Mitch Goldich, Gilberto Manzano and Conor Orr. Mike Kadlick, John Pluym and Matt Verderame took the Chiefs.
Bleacher Report followed the same pattern. Five of seven writers picked Denver - Gary Davenport, Kris Knox, Moe Moton, Brent Sobleski and Brad Gagnon - while Ian Hanford and Wes O’Donnell went with Kansas City.
In Other News...
Chiefs Broadcast Sparked A Debate ESPN Probably Knew Was Coming
During ESPNs Monday Night Football coverage of the Chiefs-Broncos game, sideline reporter Laura Rutledge explained why Denver defender Jonathon Cooper was not available, noting that he is on the commissioners exempt list after two June arrests tied to domestic violence charges. It was the kind of in-game update that can quickly shift from routine availability news into something much heavier, especially on a stage as visible as a Chiefs game in prime time.
Former Broncos safety Justin Simmons later criticized ESPN for bringing up Coopers legal situation during the broadcast, while others pushed back and said the network was simply giving viewers context for his absence. For Kansas City fans watching an AFC West opponent unfold on the national stage, the episode became part of a broader debate over how broadcasters should handle player controversies when the game itself is still very much in front of them. [Read more 🡒]
Chiefs Secondary Gets A Timely Reunion With Bigger Implications
The Chiefs added a familiar name to their taxi squad after their Week 1 win, bringing cornerback Melvin Smith Jr. back into the fold. Smith had been on the Titans 53-man roster earlier, but after being waived and going unclaimed, he found his way back to Kansas City, where the team already knows what it is getting in terms of familiarity and fit.
Kansas City has not announced any corresponding roster move to make room for Smith on the practice squad, which leaves a small bit of roster housekeeping still unresolved. Even so, the return of a player with that kind of team context is the sort of quiet transaction that can matter later, especially for a secondary that always has to be ready for attrition over the long haul. [Read more 🡒]
Andy Reid Dug Deep For A Chiefs Touchdown Fans Didn't See Coming
For a Week 1 team still settling into the rhythm of a new season, Andy Reid reached way back to add something fresh to the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs coach put Patrick Mahomes and Justin Fields on the field together in a look few fans would have expected, then turned to a play concept that dates back to the 1930s and was brought back into the conversation by longtime ESPN broadcaster Chris Berman. Kansas City studied old film to learn the design, then carried it onto the field and cashed in with a touchdown by Kenneth Walker.
It was the sort of wrinkle Reid can pull when he wants to keep a defense guessing, and it gave the Chiefs another reminder that the playbook does not always have to stay in the present tense. The Heisman look worked in the game, but it also left open a bigger question for opponents: if Kansas City is willing to dust off something this unusual in September, what else might Reid have tucked away for later? [Read more 🡒]