Chiefs Linked to Shocking Mahomes Replacement in Early Vegas Odds

With Patrick Mahomes sidelined and uncertainty swirling in Kansas City, oddsmakers are eyeing a surprising quarterback successor that could shake up the Chiefs future.

The Kansas City Chiefs are heading into unfamiliar territory this offseason-and not just because they missed the playoffs for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. For the first time since Mahomes took the reins from Alex Smith back in 2018, there’s real uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position in Kansas City. And that changes everything.

Let’s start with the obvious: Mahomes tore his ACL in Week 15, a gut punch that sent shockwaves through the franchise. Backup Gardner Minshew didn’t make it much further-he suffered a serious leg injury the following week.

Suddenly, the Chiefs were down to third-stringer Chris Oladokun and tight end Noah Gray as their emergency option under center. That’s not exactly the quarterback room you want heading into December.

The team responded by signing Shane Buechele off the Buffalo Bills’ practice squad, but that’s more of a stopgap than a solution. And now, for the first time in nearly a decade, the Chiefs enter the offseason without a clear answer at quarterback for Week 1 of the upcoming season.

Let that sink in.

General manager Brett Veach has built a reputation for shrewd roster construction, but this offseason will test his adaptability like never before. With Mahomes facing a lengthy rehab and no guarantee he’ll be ready-or fully himself-by the start of 2026, the Chiefs have to plan for a range of outcomes.

That doesn’t mean they need to draft a quarterback in the first round or blow up the cap chasing a big-name free agent. But it does mean they can’t just assume Mahomes will bounce back like nothing happened.

That kind of blind faith would be reckless.

And so, for the first time in a long time, Kansas City is a team to watch in the quarterback market.

That’s why you’re starting to hear names like Tua Tagovailoa mentioned in connection with the Chiefs. According to oddsmakers, Kansas City is currently listed with the third-best odds to land the Dolphins quarterback, behind only the Browns and Jets. The Raiders and Colts round out the top five.

Now, seeing the Chiefs lumped in with perennial quarterback-needy franchises might feel jarring. But this offseason is different. The Mahomes injury has opened the door to a level of quarterback speculation that Kansas City hasn’t seen in years-and until he’s back under center and fully healthy, that speculation isn’t going anywhere.

As for Tagovailoa, his situation in Miami has taken a sharp turn. After being drafted fifth overall in 2020 and earning a lucrative four-year extension just last offseason, Tua has now been benched in favor of rookie Quinn Ewers. That’s a dramatic fall for a player who not long ago was viewed as the Dolphins’ long-term answer at quarterback.

But even with Tua’s availability potentially on the table, a move to Kansas City feels unlikely. The financials are a major hurdle.

The Dolphins would be staring down a staggering $99.2 million in dead cap money if they were to cut him outright. And the Chiefs, already facing a roster that needs attention in multiple areas, aren’t exactly in a position to take on a bloated quarterback contract-especially for a player who wouldn’t be guaranteed a starting role.

So while the odds may say the Chiefs are in the mix, the reality is more complicated. This isn’t about Tua specifically-it’s about the position as a whole.

Until Mahomes is healthy and ready to go, Kansas City is going to be linked to just about every quarterback name that hits the rumor mill. That’s the new normal, at least for now.

The Chiefs have been the NFL’s model of stability at quarterback for the better part of a decade. But this offseason, that foundation is cracked. And how Brett Veach responds-whether through trades, free agency, or the draft-will shape the team’s short-term future and possibly much more.

One thing’s for sure: the Chiefs are no longer operating from a position of luxury. They’re in the thick of the quarterback conversation now. And that’s a storyline we haven’t had to follow in Kansas City for a long, long time.