The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a scenario that would’ve seemed unthinkable just a few months ago: their postseason hopes could be extinguished as early as this Sunday.
Yes, the defending Super Bowl champs are in that deep.
As the Chiefs prepare to host the Chargers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Not just because it’s the next game on the schedule - though that alone makes it the most important - but because a loss could all but slam the door shut on their playoff chances. In fact, depending on how the rest of the AFC shakes out this weekend, Kansas City could be officially eliminated from postseason contention.
Let’s break it down.
The Chiefs absolutely have to win their final four games. That’s the baseline.
But even if they run the table, they’ll still need help. And if they lose to the Chargers on Sunday, things get grim - fast.
That’s because L.A. is one of the teams they’re chasing in the AFC Wild Card race, so a loss would not only hurt in the standings but also in the tiebreaker math.
Joe Ferreira, a known expert in NFL playoff scenarios, outlined four distinct paths that would result in the Chiefs being eliminated this weekend. All of them start with the same painful premise: Kansas City loses on Sunday.
Here are the elimination scenarios:
- Chiefs lose, and the Jaguars, Bills, and Colts all win
- Chiefs lose, and the Jaguars, Bills, and Texans all win
- Chiefs lose, and the Bills, Colts, and Texans all win
- Chiefs lose, the Bills win, and either the Colts or Texans win, plus a combination of the Steelers or Bengals winning, and the Jaguars clinch the Strength of Victory tiebreaker over the Chiefs
That last one’s a doozy - a multi-layered domino chain that includes results from five different games and hinges on one of the NFL’s more obscure tiebreakers.
Let’s talk about that for a second.
The “Strength of Victory” tiebreaker is the NFL’s fourth option when trying to separate three or more teams with identical records - assuming those teams aren’t from the same division. Essentially, it measures the combined winning percentage of the opponents each team has beaten. So if the Jaguars’ wins came against stronger teams than the Chiefs’ wins, they’d get the edge.
Because the Steelers play on Monday Night Football, it’s entirely possible we won’t know Kansas City’s fate until late Monday evening. That’s how tight the margins are right now.
The bottom line? The Chiefs are in must-win territory - and not just this week.
Every game from here on out is a playoff game in disguise. The margin for error is gone, and the math is no longer in their favor.
If Kansas City wants to keep its season alive, it starts with beating the Chargers on Sunday. Anything less, and the curtain could fall on their 2025 campaign before the calendar even hits Week 16.