The Kansas City Chiefs are in unfamiliar territory - and not in a good way.
At 6-6, they’re sitting outside the AFC playoff picture, currently holding the ninth seed. That’s not just surprising - it’s unprecedented in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Since Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018, the Chiefs have been a postseason lock. Now, they’re in a position where every game is a must-win, and even that might not be enough.
So how did we get here?
Let’s start up front. The offensive line, which was overhauled in the offseason, has been a work in progress all year - and now it’s banged up.
Injuries have hit hard, with Mahomes finishing the Thanksgiving loss to Dallas without three of his starting linemen: right guard Trey Smith (ankle), right tackle Jawaan Taylor (elbow), and rookie left tackle Josh Simmons (wrist). That’s a brutal blow for a quarterback who thrives on timing and rhythm.
Without protection, Mahomes has had to improvise more than ever - and while he’s still capable of magic, it’s asking a lot when the margins are this thin.
Speaking of margins, Kansas City is just 1-6 in one-score games this season. That’s a stat that jumps off the page.
In years past, this was a team that thrived in tight contests - Mahomes would make the play, Travis Kelce would find a seam, and the defense would come up with a stop. But this year, it’s been the opposite.
The Chiefs have struggled to close, and it’s cost them dearly.
The Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys was a perfect example. Mahomes delivered - four touchdown passes and some vintage scramble-drill magic in his first NFL start at AT&T Stadium, just over 100 miles from his hometown of Tyler, Texas.
But the defense couldn’t hold up its end. No sacks on Dak Prescott.
No answers for CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens. It’s hard to win shootouts when the defense can’t get off the field - and that’s been a recurring theme.
The run game hasn’t helped much either. Kansas City hasn’t been able to consistently move the ball on the ground, which has put even more pressure on Mahomes to carry the offense. Add in a rash of penalties at inopportune times, and you’ve got a team that’s been beating itself as much as its opponents have.
Now, the road ahead is steep.
The Chiefs have five games left, all against AFC opponents - which means every matchup is essentially a playoff game. They’ll host the Houston Texans in Week 14, a team currently sitting one spot ahead of them in the standings.
After that, it doesn’t get easier: the Chargers in Week 15, the Titans in Week 16, the Broncos in Week 17, and the Raiders in Week 18. Only two of those - Tennessee and Las Vegas - look like matchups where the Chiefs might be favored on paper.
The others? Toss-ups at best.
The margin for error? Gone.
As one insider put it, the mission is simple: win out. Go 5-0 down the stretch and hope that’s enough to sneak in as the seventh seed.
Anything less, and the Mahomes-led Chiefs could be watching the playoffs from home for the first time.
Mahomes knows the stakes.
“You’ve got to win every game now - and hope that’s enough,” he said after the Dallas loss. “We’re going to play a lot of good teams coming up.
If we’re going to make the playoffs, we’re going to have to win them all. That’s got to be the mindset when we step into the [training facility] when we get back.”
It’s a jarring reality for a franchise that’s been the gold standard in the AFC for the better part of a decade. But the NFL doesn’t hand out playoff spots based on past success. The Chiefs are in a fight - and the only way out is through.
If they’re going to write another chapter in the Mahomes-Reid era, it starts now.