The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a scenario that, not long ago, would’ve seemed unthinkable. A team that’s spent the better part of the last five years as a perennial Super Bowl contender is now not just fighting for a playoff spot - they’re fighting to stay alive in the postseason race at all.
Yes, the math is complicated. And yes, there are still multiple paths to the playoffs. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: if the Chiefs lose to the Chargers on Sunday, there’s a real - albeit unlikely - chance they could be eliminated from playoff contention altogether.
Let’s break it down.
For Kansas City to be bounced from the postseason this week, four specific results would need to fall into place. First, the Chiefs would have to lose to the Chargers.
Then, the Patriots would need to lose to the Bills (which, given how Buffalo’s been playing, isn’t exactly far-fetched). Next, the Jaguars would have to beat the Jets, and the Texans would need to take care of business against the Cardinals.
If all four of those dominoes fall, the Chiefs would drop to 6-8 - and that’s where things get dicey. That record would land them behind the Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Chargers, Bills, and Texans in the AFC standings. With just one wild-card spot left after that, and the AFC North winner claiming another, Kansas City would be on the outside looking in.
And that’s just one elimination scenario. There are others.
Swap in the Colts beating the Seahawks instead of the Texans beating the Cardinals, for example, and the Chiefs could still be toast. It’s a tangled web of tiebreakers and standings, but the bottom line is simple: Kansas City no longer controls its own destiny.
That’s a tough pill to swallow for a franchise that’s grown accustomed to hosting playoff games in January, not scoreboard-watching in December.
So how did we get here?
The Chiefs have dropped four of their last five games, and each loss has chipped away at the aura of invincibility they once carried. The offense hasn’t looked right.
Injuries, particularly along the offensive line, have thrown off the rhythm. And while the defense has kept them in games, it hasn’t been enough to overcome the inconsistencies on the other side of the ball.
There is, however, a small sliver of good news heading into Sunday: the Chargers will be coming off a Monday night game, meaning they’re on a short week. That could help neutralize some of the Chiefs’ depth issues, especially in the trenches.
But let’s be real - this isn’t about rest advantages or scheduling quirks. This is about a team that needs to rediscover who it is.
Because right now, the Chiefs don’t look like the team that’s dominated the AFC for the better part of a decade. They look like a team clinging to hope, trying to stop the bleeding before it becomes fatal.
Make no mistake: Sunday’s game is more than just a must-win. It’s a crossroads.
If the Chiefs want to keep their season - and their dynasty window - alive, it starts with beating the Chargers. Anything less, and the playoff picture could go from cloudy to closed.