The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down unfamiliar territory - a December stretch where the playoffs aren't a given, but a long shot. For a franchise that’s become synonymous with postseason football in the Patrick Mahomes era, the current outlook feels jarring.
According to the New York Times Playoff Simulator, the Chiefs have just a 12% chance to make the playoffs with four games to go. That’s not a typo.
The AFC West? Off the table - they’ve officially been eliminated from division contention.
So now, it’s wild card or bust. And even that’s going to take a near-perfect finish.
To sneak into the postseason, Kansas City needs to win out - all four remaining games - and still get some help from teams ahead of them in the standings. It’s not impossible, but it’s a razor-thin margin for error.
The schedule offers a mix of opportunity and challenge. The Chiefs will face the Titans and Raiders - two teams they should beat on paper - but also the Chargers and Broncos, both of whom have played Kansas City tough in recent seasons. Nothing about that stretch screams “easy path.”
But let’s say the Chiefs fall short. That would mark the first time in the Mahomes era that Kansas City misses the playoffs entirely. And while many would assume a bounce-back is inevitable in 2026 - with Mahomes still in his prime and Andy Reid on the sideline - the road ahead is far from straightforward.
Here’s why: the salary cap situation is a looming storm cloud.
Kansas City is projected to be $43.7 million over the cap in 2026, according to Over The Cap. That’s not just tight - that’s suffocating.
And it gets more complicated. The Chiefs currently have just 37 players under contract for next season.
That means there are a lot of roster spots to fill and not a lot of money to fill them with.
So what’s the move?
The Chiefs have a few options, but none of them are painless. They’ll likely have to restructure contracts, make tough cuts, and possibly let some veterans walk.
How aggressive they get with those restructures will shape the next few years. Go too far down the road of kicking the cap can, and the team risks staying in financial quicksand for multiple seasons.
The smarter play? Do just enough to get under the cap in 2026, take the financial hit, and use that year as a reset. Mahomes will still be in his early 30s - squarely in his prime - and that gives Kansas City a window to regroup and reload.
But for that plan to work, the draft has to become a cornerstone again. Hitting on young, cheap talent is the most reliable way to rebuild depth without breaking the bank. That’s how the Chiefs built their first Super Bowl roster under Mahomes, and it’s how they’ll have to do it again.
If they don’t - if they keep pushing money into future years without a clear reset - we could be looking at more seasons like 2025: talented, but flawed; competitive, but capped (literally and figuratively).
The Chiefs still have Mahomes. They still have Reid.
That’s more than most franchises can say. But the margin for error is shrinking, and the next few months - on the field and in the front office - will go a long way in defining the next chapter of this dynasty-in-transition.