How the Chiefs Can Bounce Back in 2026: Three Keys to a Kansas City Reboot
After a rare stumble in 2025 that saw them miss the playoffs for the first time in over a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a pivotal offseason. The dynasty isn’t dead-but it’s definitely at a crossroads. The path back to contention in 2026 rests on three major pillars: Patrick Mahomes’ recovery, a strong draft haul, and navigating one of the NFL’s most challenging salary cap situations.
Let’s break it down.
1. Mahomes’ Health: The Comeback That Could Define the Season
It all starts with No. 15.
Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending knee injury derailed the Chiefs’ 2025 campaign, and his rehab is now the single biggest variable in the team’s 2026 outlook. Mahomes has already made it clear-he’s gunning to be back for Week 1.
And if history has taught us anything, it’s not to bet against him. The guy’s built different.
Still, even the most durable quarterbacks aren’t immune to the unpredictable nature of injury recovery. Mahomes has played through pain before, but a knee injury is a different animal, especially for a quarterback who thrives on mobility and off-script brilliance. Kansas City’s medical staff and front office will be monitoring every step of his rehab, and while optimism is warranted, caution is necessary.
If Mahomes is ready to roll by the season opener, the Chiefs are instantly back in the mix. If not, the margin for error shrinks dramatically.
2. Drafting Like It’s 2022 Again
The 2022 draft was a masterclass for Kansas City-five eventual starters, a few more key contributors, and a foundation that helped fuel back-to-back Super Bowl runs. Replicating that kind of success in 2026 won’t be easy, especially with fewer picks in hand.
As it stands, the Chiefs are projected to have just six selections in this year’s draft, including a compensatory pick. That’s a far cry from the 10 picks they had in 2022.
General manager Brett Veach has traditionally been aggressive, often trading up rather than down. But with limited draft capital and a roster that needs an infusion of young, affordable talent, this might be the year he flips the script.
The Chiefs don’t need a full rebuild-they need reinforcements. Hitting on even a couple of mid-round picks who can contribute early would go a long way in balancing the roster and easing the cap crunch.
3. Solving the Salary Cap Puzzle
Now, here’s the real challenge: money.
The Chiefs are currently projected to be about $58 million over the 2026 salary cap. That’s not a typo.
It puts them dead last in the league in terms of available cap space. For context, the next closest team, the Saints, are $42 million over.
That’s a steep hill to climb.
A big chunk of that comes from the cap hits for Mahomes ($78 million) and Chris Jones ($45 million). Those two alone account for a massive portion of the budget. And while the Chiefs have known this was coming-they went all-in chasing a three-peat in 2024-it doesn’t make the decisions any easier.
So how do they fix it?
The Restructure Route: Mahomes and Jones
The cleanest way to create cap space is through contract restructures-turning base salary into signing bonuses and spreading the cap hit over future years. Mahomes is the obvious starting point. The Chiefs have reworked his deal multiple times since he signed that mega-extension in 2020, and they may need to do it again.
In fact, this might be the moment to go even further: tear up the current deal and build a new one from scratch. That would allow the Chiefs to reset Mahomes’ cap numbers entirely, including a looming $74 million hit in 2027. He’s under contract through 2031, so there’s room to maneuver.
As for Jones, the situation is trickier. He’s 31, and while he’s still a dominant force, the Chiefs have to weigh the long-term cost of extending a player at that age.
A restructure is possible, but it might make more sense to absorb the hit now and preserve flexibility for the future. Next offseason could be the time to revisit his deal when the cap savings outweigh the dead money.
Other Moves on the Table
Beyond the big names, there are several other players who could be part of the cap solution.
- Jawaan Taylor: Moving on from the right tackle could free up $20 million. It’s a tough call, but one the Chiefs may have to consider.
- Mike Danna: Cutting or trading the defensive end could save another $9 million.
- Trent McDuffie: The rising star cornerback is entering the final year of his rookie deal, and while the Chiefs would love to extend him, the financial gymnastics might make that difficult.
His name has surfaced in trade speculation-not because the team wants to move him, but because it might be the only way to create space and recoup draft capital.
The Jets recently landed two first-round picks for Sauce Gardner, though McDuffie wouldn’t command quite that haul. Still, if a deal in that ballpark materialized, it could be tempting.
The Blueprint Is Already in Motion
None of this is catching the Chiefs off guard. Assistant GM Chris Shea and Brett Veach have been preparing for this moment, knowing that pushing chips to the center of the table in 2024 would eventually come with a cost. The plan to get under the cap won’t unfold all at once-it’ll be a series of calculated moves, some of which may not come until after the NFL Scouting Combine kicks off on February 23.
The good news? Kansas City has done this dance before.
They’ve built a roster around a generational quarterback, navigated cap crunches, and still managed to compete at the highest level. But 2026 brings a new kind of challenge-one that will test their creativity, discipline, and long-term vision.
If Mahomes is healthy, the draft yields a couple of gems, and the front office executes the cap plan with precision, the Chiefs won’t just be back-they’ll be dangerous.
Again.