When the (6-7) Kansas City Chiefs host the (9-4) Los Angeles Chargers this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, it won’t just be another AFC West matchup - it’ll be a high-stakes rematch with playoff implications hanging in the balance. Kickoff is set for noon local time, and the game will be televised on CBS (KCTV5 in Kansas City).
Back in Week 1, the Chargers edged out the Chiefs 27-21 in São Paulo, Brazil. Since then, Los Angeles has built itself into a legitimate playoff contender, currently holding the top Wild Card spot in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Chiefs - defending conference champions - are fighting to stay alive in a season that’s fallen well short of expectations.
With freezing temperatures expected at kickoff, this one has all the makings of a gritty December battle at Arrowhead. Since 2010, the Chiefs are 5-3 against the Chargers at home in December - but this year, they'll need more than history on their side. Here are five key storylines to watch heading into Sunday’s showdown:
1. Esa Pole’s Next Test
Undrafted rookie left tackle Esa Pole was thrown into the fire last week when Wanya Morris exited with a knee injury. Pole held his own in his NFL debut - and now, with both Morris and starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor ruled out, he’s set to make his first start.
This isn’t just a stopgap assignment. With Morris headed for free agency and Taylor’s contract potentially becoming a cap casualty, Pole is playing for more than just snaps - he’s auditioning for a long-term role. A strong finish to the season could put him squarely in the mix for a 2026 roster spot, maybe even as a swing tackle or more.
But this week’s challenge is a different beast. The Chargers bring heat off the edge with veteran Khalil Mack and emerging force Tuli Tuipulotu.
Unlike the speed-based rush the Chiefs saw against Houston, the Chargers bring power - and lots of it. If Pole can hold his ground again, it’ll be a strong sign that Kansas City may have unearthed a gem.
2. The Third-Down Battle
Third down is where games are won - and lately, the Chiefs just haven’t been winning that battle.
The Chargers come into this one converting on third down at a 47% clip, third-best in the league. Kansas City? They're middle of the pack offensively (40%, 13th), but the real problem is on defense, where they’re allowing opponents to convert 43% of the time - 26th in the NFL.
That trend continued last week, when the Chiefs gave up 8-of-18 third downs to Houston, and the week before, 9-of-16 to Dallas. It’s been a season-long issue, starting all the way back in Week 1, when the Chargers converted 7-of-13 third downs.
Part of the problem is a lack of pressure in obvious passing situations. Without consistent heat on the quarterback, Kansas City’s defense has struggled to get off the field.
That’s a big concern against a Chargers offense that thrives on staying ahead of the sticks. They rank second in time of possession, controlling the ball for nearly 33 minutes per game.
They use early-down balance to set up manageable third downs - and then let their power run game or Herbert’s arm do the rest.
If the Chiefs can’t disrupt that rhythm, it could be a long afternoon.
3. Expect a Low-Scoring Grind
This rivalry has seen its fair share of shootouts, but Sunday’s forecast - both weather and matchup - points to a more defensive affair.
The Over/Under is sitting at just 41.5 points, and with freezing temperatures expected at Arrowhead, points could be at a premium.
Both teams rank in the top 10 in scoring defense. Kansas City allows just 19.4 points per game, while the Chargers are close behind at 20.8. And while both offenses are capable of putting up numbers, protection issues on both sides have been a recurring theme.
The Chiefs rolled with a patchwork offensive line in Week 14, and now they’ll be without two starting tackles again. The Chargers, meanwhile, have had their own struggles keeping Justin Herbert upright - and that’s before factoring in his injured hand.
This game could come down to who makes fewer mistakes in the trenches - and who can squeeze out just enough offense in the cold.
4. Time for Kelce and Rice to Rebound
If the Chiefs want to keep their playoff hopes alive, they need big-time bounce-back games from their top two pass-catchers.
Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce had a rough outing in Week 14. Rice finished with just four catches for 34 yards, while Kelce had one catch for eight. Both had costly drops - one that killed a drive on downs, and another that turned into a pick.
Those are uncharacteristic mistakes from two players Kansas City leans on heavily. And while neither spoke to the media after the game, their frustration was clear. The Chiefs need leadership now more than ever, and that starts with their stars.
Kelce and Rice don’t just need to show up - they need to lead the charge. With the offense sputtering and the season on the line, this is the moment for them to set the tone.
5. Can the Chiefs Get to Herbert?
Justin Herbert has been under siege all season - and it’s starting to show.
He’s been sacked 45 times, third-most in the league, and has taken 61 hits, the second-highest total. Add in a broken left hand, and it’s clear the Chargers’ franchise quarterback is gutting it out through some serious adversity.
That should be a green light for Kansas City’s pass rush - but so far this season, pressure hasn’t come easy. The Chiefs have struggled to consistently collapse the pocket, and that’s one of the reasons their defense has faltered in key moments.
If there’s ever a time to flip that script, it’s now. With a banged-up Chargers line and a wounded quarterback, this is a prime opportunity for Kansas City’s front to make an impact. Whether it’s Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, or a blitz from the second level, the Chiefs need to find ways to make Herbert uncomfortable.
Because if they don’t? He’s still dangerous enough to pick them apart.
Bottom Line: The Chiefs are in must-win territory, and they’re facing a Chargers team that already beat them once and is playing with confidence. But this is Arrowhead in December - and if Kansas City wants to show it still belongs in the playoff conversation, it starts with a complete team effort on Sunday.