The Kansas City Chiefs had a messy stretch last season, and not all of it came down to execution. Some of it, according to the numbers, may have been football luck.
That’s the lens Jesse Newell of The Athletic used when he dug into Kansas City’s second-half slide and the strange ways the margins broke against them. The Chiefs finished with a point differential of 34, and Newell pointed out that all three teams over the last decade that ended with that same margin also finished at least 9-7.
One of the biggest swing points is the kind of game Kansas City kept losing. Newell said the Chiefs should improve in clutch moments next season, and he backed that up with a brutal stat: according to TruMedia, Kansas City became just the second NFL team since 2000 to go 1-9 or worse in one-score games. Bill Barnwell of ESPN also noted that about 50 percent of NFL games are decided by seven points or less.
With Patrick Mahomes back, the expectation is that Kansas City’s one-score record should move closer to .500. If the Chiefs can simply hold the level they had before Mahomes went out, that alone should put them back in the playoff mix.
Turnovers were a different story. Newell was skeptical that the Chiefs were due for a big bounce there, arguing that creating turnovers can be random and that Kansas City has not always built its defense around forcing them under Steve Spagnuolo.
He tied that to the way the Chiefs play. Their heavy use of man coverage keeps defenders locked on receivers instead of staring at the quarterback, which cuts down on interception chances. Newell also noted that Kansas City has usually drafted assignment-oriented defensive linemen such as George Karlaftis, though that could shift with the selection of R Mason Thomas.
Injury luck, meanwhile, was a mixed bag. Newell called the idea that the Chiefs should expect major improvement there “Not as true as you think.” The injury data showed Kansas City was actually a little healthier than most teams overall, but the Mahomes injury was a major blow, and the rest of the damage clustered on the offensive line, especially at tackle.
There was one more area where the Chiefs may get a small boost without changing anything. Newell said special teams should be worth about a point per game more next season because of an odd field-goal quirk. As Rivers McCown wrote in FTN’s Football Almanac, “Kansas City had the worst luck in the league on opposing field goals, as the only miss was a 52-yarder by Buffalo’s Matt Prater in Week 9.”
In Other News...
Chiefs Linked To Receiver Rumor With Serious Off Field Baggage
The Chiefs are being mentioned in the Stefon Diggs conversation at a time when Kansas City is still sorting out its receiver room before training camp. Diggs is coming off a productive first season with New England and is looking for a new contract, which naturally has kept his name in circulation as teams around the league weigh whether he can still be a difference-maker on the field.
Interest in Diggs is not hard to understand, but the off-field picture is where any pursuit gets complicated. He is facing multiple civil lawsuits tied to incidents from 2023 and 2024, and while several teams have reportedly checked in on him, Kansas City is one of the clubs that could be monitoring the situation closely as it considers whether the talent outweighs the baggage. [Read more 🡒]
Chiefs May Finally Have A Rare Chance To Change Mahomes Debate
Patrick Mahomes recovery has naturally put Kansas Citys offense under a brighter spotlight, and it has also reopened a familiar conversation about whether the Chiefs need another true difference-maker at receiver. With the passing game still built around Mahomes timing and improvisation, the idea of adding a top-tier pass catcher is the kind of move that can change how defenses have to play them, not just for one stretch but over the long haul.
Garrett Wilson has emerged as the name to watch because of the uncertainty surrounding the Jets, who may be staring at a quarterback situation that does not have a clear long-term answer yet. If New York ever decides to listen, Kansas City would be among the teams with both the motivation and the structure to make a serious push, and the fit is obvious enough that it already feels like one of those rare chances the Chiefs do not often get. [Read more 🡒]
Jayden Daniels Had The Perfect Reaction To Patrick Mahomes Dominating
Jayden Daniels has already shown he belongs in the conversation with the NFLs top young quarterbacks, but one of the more revealing moments around him came not from the field, but from the sideline. Season 3 of Netflixs "Quarterback" captures Daniels during the Washington Commanders matchup with the Chiefs, and it shows the rookie taking in Patrick Mahomes the way so many players do when he is rolling. The series also gives a little more texture to Daniels off the field, with interviews from him, his mother Regina Jackson and publicist Denise White helping frame the people around his career.
Jacksons role is part of what makes Daniels profile stand out, since she is deeply involved in managing his path as he settles into the league. The Netflix series makes clear that his support system is not just background noise, it is part of the story, and it adds another layer to why his reaction to Mahomes resonated. For Chiefs fans, it is another reminder of how often Mahomes leaves even accomplished opponents sounding like spectators, and why the league keeps circling back to him whenever the conversation turns to quarterback play. [Read more 🡒]