The Kansas City Chiefs are in unfamiliar territory - clinging to postseason hopes with a 6-7 record and a razor-thin margin for error. After a gut-punch of a loss to the Houston Texans in Week 14, the defending champs now find themselves on the outside looking in, with only a 12% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s simulator.
The path forward? Simple on paper, brutal in reality: win out and hope the dominoes fall just right.
That alone is a tall order. But here’s the twist - if they somehow pull it off, there’s still a belief that Kansas City could go the distance. Former NFL quarterback Chase Daniel weighed in with a take that might raise eyebrows, but also taps into the respect this team still commands around the league.
“I don’t see a path for them to the playoffs. I really don’t,” Daniel said on Scoop City. “But if they do get in, I still think they can win a Super Bowl.”
That’s not just lip service. Daniel’s point cuts to the heart of this year’s AFC playoff picture - it’s wide open, and frankly, it’s hard to know who to trust.
Lamar Jackson is sitting at the nine seed. Joe Burrow?
The twelve seed. Josh Allen and the Bills are heating up, sure, but they’re still just the five seed.
Beyond that, it’s a mixed bag of young quarterbacks and inconsistent contenders.
“Do you trust Bo Nix in the playoffs with the game on the line? I love Bo Nix, but do you trust him?
Do you trust Drake Maye? The Patriots?”
Daniel asked, highlighting the uncertainty that defines the AFC in 2025.
That uncertainty is what keeps the door cracked open for Kansas City. Despite their record, despite their struggles, despite the numbers saying they’re longshots - if they get in, they’ll be the team no one wants to face. Because even in a down year, they still have the one thing most teams don’t: Patrick Mahomes.
Now, that’s not to gloss over the issues. The Chiefs have dropped games they should’ve won.
The offensive rhythm hasn’t been there. And the defense, while solid in stretches, hasn’t been able to carry them through rough patches like it did early in the season.
The margin for error is gone. Every snap matters from here on out.
The loss to Houston was a blow not just to the record, but to the momentum. And Monday night didn’t help either - when the Chargers knocked off the Eagles, Kansas City’s playoff odds dipped another two percent.
They now need to leapfrog multiple teams - including the Chargers, Bills, and Texans - just to sneak into a wild card spot. And that’s assuming they win out, which means beating teams that are also clawing for playoff life.
But if there’s one thing this franchise understands, it’s how to handle pressure. This is a team that’s been in the fire before.
They know what it means to take it one game at a time. And they’ve got a quarterback who’s made a career out of turning long shots into highlight reels.
So yes, the odds are against them. The road is steep.
But if Mahomes and the Chiefs can find a way to get in - even as the seventh seed - they’re still a threat to make noise in January. Because in an AFC full of question marks, Kansas City remains the one team with a proven answer.