The Jaguars have a real chance to own the AFC South again in 2026, and the Colts keep lining up as the team most likely to get run over in the middle of that race.
Jacksonville is trying to win back-to-back division titles for the first time in franchise history, and the path runs straight through Indianapolis. That’s not exactly comforting news for the Colts, who still haven’t found a way to win in Jacksonville since 2014.
That was the Chad Henne-Andrew Luck game, the one that also marked the debut of rookie Blake Bortles. Since then, the trip to Duval has been a dead end.
And nothing about this offseason suggests that streak is about to change.
The Colts entered the year with plenty of pressure on the people in charge, but they didn’t make the kind of major moves that signal a real reset. They were swept by the Jaguars a year ago, including a lopsided loss in Jacksonville, and they didn’t do much to close that gap.
The organization still looks like it needs fresh ideas, especially when it comes to winning at Everbank Stadium. It didn’t get them.
Shane Steichen’s run in Indianapolis has been solid in the most ordinary way possible. He’s not coaching a disaster, but he also hasn’t pushed the Colts into anything meaningful.
Against Jacksonville, the results have been rough. Steichen is 1-5 versus the Jaguars, with two losses by 17 points and another by 10.
His only win came in Week 18 of 2024 against a Mac Jones-led Jaguars team that was without Trevor Lawrence and already looked like it was drifting through the final week of the Doug Pederson era. Even then, Indianapolis needed overtime to finish the job, winning 26-23.
That kind of record matters, especially if Steichen needs a playoff berth to keep his seat warm. If he’s out of a job, his inability to solve Jacksonville will be a big part of the story.
The quarterback room is another problem the Colts never really cleaned up. Daniel Jones opened the 2025 season well enough, but the drop-off was always coming, and it did.
Then came the injury. He’s still back as their best option this season, which says plenty about where things stand.
The Colts also passed on adding Kyler Murray, a decision that looks even stranger in that context.
Behind Jones, the situation is just as messy. Anthony Richardson, once a top-5 pick, still looks like a player who needs a new start to get his career moving in the right direction.
Riley Leonard appears poised to pass him on the depth chart, which is a strange place for the Colts to be after not trusting Leonard over a geriatric Philip Rivers a year ago. Last season’s quarterback setup was already a mess, and this offseason didn’t fix it.
Then there’s the Sauce Gardner trade, which still feels like an odd bet. Gardner has been one of the league’s best cornerbacks by most measures, but he’s not a big turnover producer.
He has three interceptions in his career, including one in his last couple dozen starts. He’s a quality player, no question, but the Jaguars can roll out three or four legitimate receivers.
If Gardner takes one away, there are still other targets to attack. Giving up two first-round picks for that kind of piece seems like a strange use of premium draft capital.
That move left Indianapolis with one of the more average rosters in the league, and it didn’t really give them the kind of top-end help that justifies such a massive price. First-round picks are for Jalen Ramsey, Myles Garrett, those types of players. Not for a good cover man who doesn’t often swing a game by himself.
There are still a few bright spots. Jonathan Taylor is an elite running back, and Alec Pierce has real talent.
But the Colts also may be carrying the NFL’s most overrated tight end in Tyler Warren. He flashed as a rookie, sure, but he looked a tier or two below Colston Loveland.
A lot of Warren’s production came during the Colts’ hot start, and much of it was built on schemed-up plays rather than him consistently creating on his own. Add in average-to-below average run blocking, and he doesn’t look like the difference-maker people were talking him up to be.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville has the AFC South’s best tight end in Brenton Strange. Warren looks more like a bargain-bin version of that than a real threat to the claim.
In Other News...
Jaguars Camp Roster Reveals What This Quiet Offseason Was Really About
Jacksonvilles quiet offseason turns out to have been busy in a very specific way, with the team bringing 31 players onto the training camp roster and spreading those additions across just about every part of the depth chart. The mix says a lot about how the Jaguars approached the spring: 10 draft picks, 16 undrafted rookies and a handful of veteran signings, all aimed at creating competition at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker, cornerback and safety.
The first wave of outside additions was especially telling, with running back Chris Rodriguez joining the group as the lone outside free-agent pickup in that initial pass. For a roster that needed to be built out without much noise, the emphasis was on volume, flexibility and giving the coaching staff as many options as possible once camp opened. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Camp Battle Could Decide How Reliable This Line Really Is
Training camp is set to put a little more clarity around one of the Jaguars most important line questions, with Patrick Mekari and Wyatt Milum expected to compete for the right guard job. Mekari arrived in free agency this year with the kind of NFL experience that usually gives a player an edge, while Milum enters his second season as a recent third-round pick with a chance to push for a starting role.
The appeal of the battle is that it may say as much about the line as it does about either player. Mekari brings a track record, but last season was uneven enough to leave room for doubt, and Milum has the profile of a young lineman who could force the issue if camp goes well. However it plays out, this is the kind of competition that could shape how dependable the Jaguars feel about the right side of their front. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Land A Win-Now Mock Draft That Changes Everything Around Trevor
A recent NFL.com mock draft took a very different approach to Jacksonvilles future, using only current NFL players and a win-now lens to map out what the roster could look like if the Jaguars were trying to accelerate the timeline around Trevor Lawrence. Chad Reuters seven-round exercise used the actual 2025 draft order with a snake format after the first round, and it gave Jacksonville an aggressive mix of help at quarterback, along the offensive line and across the skill positions.
The most eye-catching part was the way the board kept pushing proven talent toward Jacksonville, starting with Bo Nix in the first round and then layering on more immediate upgrades. The mock also had the Jaguars addressing the trenches with Creed Humphrey and adding names like Colston Loveland and Jakobi Meyers, but the pass-rush choice may be the one that really gets people talking, especially with Josh Hines-Allen already in the picture. [Read more 🡒]