The Jacksonville Jaguars enter 2026 with the AFC South crown already in hand from a year ago, but repeating is going to demand more than simply being the best team in the room. The division is lined with problems, and the Jaguars have a few specific ones that could make life difficult if they want to stay on top.
The most obvious obstacle is the Houston Texans, and it starts with a defense that has been elite for years and pushed into another stratosphere last season. The unit was so dominant that it drew comparisons to the 2017 Jaguars, and if C.J.
Stroud had not completely melted down in the playoffs, the Texans’ defense might have carried them all the way to a Super Bowl appearance. Jacksonville had moments against that group, but not enough sustained success.
To win the division again, the Jaguars will have to score more than they did in their narrow win over Houston last year and finish the job in a way they failed to do in their loss.
Nico Collins is a huge part of that problem. He has become the boogeyman of Duval in recent years, putting up 100+ receiving yards in five straight games against the Jaguars going back to 2023.
Over those five games, Collins has totaled 42 catches for 614 yards and three touchdowns. The Texans have questions at running back, quarterback, and along the offensive line, but there is no uncertainty about Collins.
He is the division’s best receiver, and Jacksonville will need Travis Hunter, Montaric Brown and the rest of the secondary to be sharp when the Texans show up.
The Tennessee Titans present a different kind of threat. On paper, the gap between Trevor Lawrence and Cam Ward is a major reason the Jaguars should handle Tennessee with ease.
But there is a path where Ward makes a leap that changes the conversation. Second-year quarterbacks have been making those jumps lately, with Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and even Lawrence himself serving as examples.
If Ward becomes that kind of player, the two games the Jaguars currently expect to control could get a lot trickier.
That possibility is tied to a bigger question: how much better can Ward be after a rough rookie season on a bad roster? The talent is there, but the supporting cast still has to prove it has improved enough, even after the Titans poured a ton of resources into the offense.
Then there’s Indianapolis, where desperation can be its own weapon. The Colts enter 2026 with head coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard clearly on the hot seat, and they have not won the AFC South since 2014.
That pressure has produced an offseason full of moves that have not exactly moved the needle, but it also means the Colts will have more at stake every time they face Jacksonville. The Jaguars are the better team by a healthy margin - better head coach, more talent, better roster across the board - but a desperate team can still be dangerous.
History adds one more layer to the challenge. The Jaguars have won the AFC South only three times since the division was created in 2002: in 2017, in 2022, and last year.
The last two times they did it, the follow-up seasons went sideways. The 2018 Jaguars collapsed, and the 2023 Jaguars faded badly, going 1-5 over their final six games and missing the playoffs.
This team looks different, and there are real reasons to view them as Super Bowl contenders. Still, the Jaguars have to prove they can handle the target that comes with winning the division, because they have not always done that before.
In Other News...
Jaguars Send 3 Pass Rushers To Sack Summit With NFL Elite
The Jaguars are sending three of their top pass rushers to the 2024 Sack Summit from July 9-11, a gathering for NFL edge defenders hosted by Maxx Crosby, Cameron Jordan and Von Miller. Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Arik Armstead will be among the players in the room, giving Jacksonville a chance to keep its front-line pressure group around some of the leagues most established names while the offseason still has room to shape their next step.
For Hines-Allen, it is another marker of a season in which he was among the leagues most productive pressure players. Walker arrives with the momentum of a recent extension that underscored how strongly the Jaguars still believe in his trajectory, while Armstead enters with a different kind of motivation after a hand injury affected his late-season production. The summit does not answer every question about what Jacksonvilles pass rush will become, but it does put three important pieces of it in the same place at the same time. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Veteran Is Forcing A Tough Backfield Decision In Camp
Ameer Abdullah has spent long enough in the league to know how camp battles work, and he is leaning on that experience in Jacksonville. Entering his 12th NFL season, the veteran running back is giving the Jaguars something every training camp needs: a steady hand in a crowded room, plus the kind of versatility that can help in more than one phase of the game. Coaches and teammates have taken notice of the way he works, especially as he helps guide a young backfield.
What makes Abdullah interesting is that his value is not limited to carries. He can help as a pass catcher and on special teams, which gives him a path to stick even as the Jaguars sort through their backfield mix. For a team that has to balance depth, roles and weekly game-day value, Abdullahs case is the kind that can make a late-summer decision tougher than it first looked. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Still Have One Huge Arik Armstead Question Up Front
Arik Armstead is still on the Jaguars roster as training camp opens, and for now that keeps one of the bigger questions up front from turning into an immediate roster move. The veteran defensive tackle is heading into the final year of his deal with a $19.385 million cap hit, and none of that money is guaranteed, which is why his status drew so much attention throughout the offseason.
Jacksonville weighed its options, but Armsteads presence on the defensive line still matters to a group that needs stability in the trenches. He also played through a hand injury late last season, and his production tailed off after a strong start, so the Jaguars are left balancing cost, health and value as they head deeper into camp with the decision still hanging over the front of the defense. [Read more 🡒]