The Broncos are still laying 2.5 points at home, but the number hasn’t done much to quiet the noise after Denver’s rough Week 1 loss to Kansas City. Jacksonville, meanwhile, comes in off a statement opener, and this matchup now feels a lot less like a routine early-season game than a real test of where both AFC contenders stand.
Denver’s first week was ugly in the areas that usually decide games. The Broncos scored just 10 points against the Chiefs, and Bo Nix’s offense finished with the worst EPA/Play in the NFL. Nix also turned it over multiple times, which is the kind of performance that puts immediate pressure on a team expected to hang around the top of the conference.
Jacksonville answered its own questions in a big way against Cleveland. Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdown passes, and the Jaguars looked sharp enough to justify the belief that last season’s AFC South title and No. 3 seed were no accident. They also already have a win over Denver, taking down the Broncos in Week 16 last season.
That history is part of why this line is interesting. Denver opened as a 2.5-point favorite and stayed there even after getting blown out in primetime, though the spread could still creep toward Broncos -3 by kickoff on Sunday. Oddsmakers clearly aren’t ready to bury Denver after one bad night.
Still, there’s plenty to like about Jacksonville in this spot. SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan called the Jaguars his favorite bet for the game, and he’s backing them to win outright. He pointed to Jacksonville finishing Week 1 as the second-best team in the NFL by DVOA, behind only the 49ers, while also praising the defense and Lawrence’s comfort in Liam Coen’s system.
The Broncos’ defense, which was No. 1 in defensive success rate and No. 7 in defensive EPA/Play last season, had a brutal tackling night against Kansas City. Denver missed 28 tackles and gave up 247 yards after those misses, the most by any defense in a game since at least 2018. Eight different Broncos defenders missed multiple tackles.
That kind of sloppiness is a bad sign against a Jacksonville team that just rolled through Cleveland on offense. Denver may be a tougher test than the Browns, but the Broncos also had the worst EPA/Play on offense in Week 1 with Davis Webb calling plays. A 0-2 start would not be a shock here.
The prediction angle points to an upset-minded Jaguars side and a Broncos team still trying to find itself.
In Other News...
Trevor Lawrence Has A Costly Jaguars Habit They Need To Fix
Trevor Lawrences operation at quarterback has been clean enough for Jacksonville to keep building around him, but there is one recurring issue the Jaguars would still like to erase. Over his last 18 games, Lawrence has been flagged for three illegal forward passes, a small-looking mistake that can still swing a drive and frustrate a staff trying to tighten every detail. Coach Liam Coen has already talked about working to help Lawrence avoid those penalties, which is the kind of maintenance that matters most for a team trying to make each possession count.
The Jaguars also got a few personnel updates around the roster this week. Undrafted rookie Bryan Thomas Jr. is expected to play after the injury to defensive end BJ Green, giving Jacksonville another option along the front. Linebacker Jack Kiser has been elevated to the active roster after getting back from the knee injury he suffered in training camp, a reminder that the team is still sorting through depth while trying to eliminate the kinds of self-inflicted issues that can linger over a game. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Offense Faces One Big Question Against A Vulnerable Broncos Defense
Jacksonville comes into Week 2 with a chance to keep building on an encouraging offensive showing, and the matchup with Denver gives the Jaguars a clear path to stress a defense that has already shown some vulnerability. Trevor Lawrence should have plenty to work with if the passing game stays sharp, but the ground attack may be the more interesting piece here, especially with Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. in the mix as Jacksonville looks for ways to keep the Broncos off balance.
The biggest question is whether the Jaguars can turn that run-game edge into a steady advantage, particularly against a Denver defense that can be attacked on under center runs. If Jacksonville can stay ahead of the chains and avoid relying too heavily on Lawrence to carry the load, the offense has a chance to control the game in a way that keeps this one from becoming more complicated than it needs to be. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Head To Denver With One Early Season Test Suddenly Looming
Bhayshul Tutens Week 1 debut gave the Jaguars something to lean on as they head into Denver, where the early part of the season starts to feel a little more real. Jacksonvilles running game looked capable of carrying more of the load, and that matters against a Broncos team that can make life harder at the line of scrimmage. With changes up front on the Jaguars offensive line, this matchup becomes as much about how well Jacksonville can protect its structure as it is about which skill players flash.
The Broncos bring their own set of questions into the game, but they also present a different kind of defensive test than the Jaguars saw last week. The chess match in Denver should say plenty about where Jacksonvilles offense is right now, especially if the ground game has to set the tone again. The bigger issue is whether the Jaguars can match that promise with consistency, because this early-season trip is the sort of spot where one side usually finds out a lot more about itself than it expected. [Read more 🡒]