The Jaguars already showed they can walk into Denver and leave with a win. They did it in 2025, and the matchup comes back around in Week 3 at Mile High with Jacksonville carrying a case for why it can get the better of the Broncos again.
That first meeting last season told a lot of the story. Trevor Lawrence was sharp, efficient and explosive, and he looked like the cleaner quarterback compared with Bo Nix.
Lawrence attacked the field in different ways, avoided major mistakes and handled a Broncos pass rush that had been giving teams problems. Nix, for all the wins Denver piled up over the last two seasons, still has work to do before he’s in Lawrence’s lane.
He also has to get healthy after the playoff injury he suffered a year ago.
Lawrence’s outlook for 2026 only strengthens Jacksonville’s argument. He enters another season in Liam Coen’s system with more help around him, and the expectation is that he keeps climbing.
The Broncos, meanwhile, are making a notable change on the sideline. Sean Payton will not be calling plays in 2026, and that puts Davis Webb in the spotlight as a rookie play-caller.
Anthony Campanile, now with a full year as an NFL defensive coordinator under his belt, gets the matchup edge there. Campanile’s defense already gave Denver problems in stretches last season, and there’s little in the setup that suggests the Jaguars should back off from that advantage now.
Denver does have one of the league’s true defensive headliners in Patrick Surtain II. The source material goes even further, calling him maybe the best cornerback of his generation.
But Jacksonville found ways around him last time by working the rest of the secondary, and that’s where the Jaguars’ receiving group can keep pressing. Brian Thomas Jr. gives them the kind of outside speed that forces attention, which can open space for Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange.
Travis Hunter did not play in that game a year ago, and Nate Boerkircher at backup tight end adds another layer of versatility.
The Broncos did get to Lawrence in that win, sacking him five times and piling up 21 pressures, which ranked as the second-most pressure Jacksonville faced in a game last season. Even so, there’s a strong case that the script changes this time.
Denver’s pass rush was elite a year ago, but it would be fair to expect some regression. Just as important, Coen should have more answers now.
Last season, Jacksonville’s run game had gone off the rails by the time these teams met, forcing the offense into a dropback-heavy plan that played right into Denver’s hands. That should not be the same problem in 2026.
If the Jaguars can run it better, they can make Denver’s rush less of a wrecking ball. That also helps the play-action game, which would give Lawrence more protection and more options. In other words, Jacksonville doesn’t have to win this game the same way it did last time.
Special teams may be another place where the Jaguars hold the upper hand. On SI’s Bill Huber ranked Jacksonville 10th in that area and Denver 22nd, a gap that suggests the Broncos have more cleanup work to do.
Special teams mattered a lot to the Jaguars’ success last season, and it could matter again here. Marvin Mims is a solid punt returner, but Jacksonville has the edge if Parker Washington is still handling that job in 2026.
If the Jaguars turn to rookie receiver Josh Cameron there, that becomes a little less clear. Otherwise, the advantage leans Jacksonville across the board.
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