The 2026 NFL trade deadline shook up the futures market, but no team drew more attention from oddsmakers than Jacksonville.
While Chicago and San Francisco kicked off the frenzy before Week 9 by adding Jeffery Simmons and DeForest Buckner, the Jaguars and Vikings made the loudest moves in the final two days before the deadline. Jacksonville’s aggressive push sent its Super Bowl price inside 10/1, and the books say the public is finally starting to notice.
The Jaguars, sitting at 6-2, are in command of the AFC South and went shopping for defense, sending multiple picks out to land safety Jessie Bates, defensive tackle Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux. The payoff is obvious on paper: Jacksonville already ranks No. 2 in the NFL in EPA/Play and No. 1 in EPA/Rush, and those additions only strengthened a unit that was already carrying the team.
Oddsmakers were quick to stamp Jacksonville as the deadline’s biggest winner.
“Jaguars definitely,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM, told Sports Illustrated. “They made moves signalling they are all-in and their team is much better this week now versus last week.”
There is still some debate about the cost. Jacksonville gave up a first and a second-round pick for Davis, and that kind of price tag naturally raises eyebrows. But from the betting side, the reaction has been positive for this season, even if the long-term bill could show up later.
"The Jaguars improved in our power ratings due to acquiring Bates and Davis, though many believe they overpaid in draft capital,” a FanDuel Trader told Sports Illustrated.
What’s interesting is that the market move hasn’t been matched by a massive wave of public Super Bowl money. The Jaguars are now around +750 to win it all, but sportsbooks say much of that shift is tied to their improved outlook and their grip on the division rather than a full-blown public stampede.
“We have not seen significant Super Bowl action on Jacksonville, and they remain our best position in the futures market,” Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated. “The Jaguars have yet to build their resume against top contenders, which has kept the public from fully buying into them as a legitimate championship team.”
That said, the perception is changing. Several books described Jacksonville as a winner in the market because they aren’t carrying much liability, and the team is drawing more interest than it did earlier in the season.
“Jags are usually not a team that takes a lot of action in the preseason,” Cipollini said. “Looking at realistic teams that have a chance, Jags are our least bet on team.
At this moment they are one of our biggest winners. The public is starting to back them now and the market is treating them as a legitimate contender.”
FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics Sportsbook all told Sports Illustrated that Jacksonville has picked up steam over the last few weeks. Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, pointed to a clear rise in betting interest.
“They are sitting at +750 right now on our book,” Gour told Sports Illustrated. “So, they're definitely shooting up the board. It's funny because overall the Jags, like over the course of the entire betting market lifecycle, they're our 15th most-bet Super Bowl team.
“But in the last month, they're our fifth most-bet behind Chicago, San Fran, Buffalo and KC. So, they've kind of entrenched themselves in that contender discussion recently and you're starting to see that in the betting action itself, but the overall liability is still quite small, if not a positive result for us at this point.”
Minnesota also made a major splash by finally addressing its quarterback situation. The Vikings sent a third-round pick to Las Vegas for Kirk Cousins, and that move pushed their Super Bowl number up the board despite the fact that they’ve dropped two straight.
“This week the Cousins one was the biggest,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated when asked the impact of the deadline. “That took Minnesota down from, about 28/1 to 22/1. And just because Carson Wentz looked so bad on Monday night, I think that also was a reason why we reacted and the bettors also reacted to playing it.”
For now, though, Jacksonville is the team oddsmakers keep circling. The Jaguars’ defense is elite, the AFC South looks theirs to lose, and there’s even a path to the No. 1 seed over Buffalo or Denver. If that happens, their Super Bowl price could keep shortening, especially with so many AFC contenders already showing obvious flaws.
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Jaguars Just Sent A Clear Message About This Teams Direction
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James Gladstone also made it clear the Jaguars were not interested in dealing Brian Thomas Jr., even with outside expectations building around a possible move. Add in his comments about the teams offensive depth, and the message from Jacksonville is hard to miss: this is a front office willing to spend, hold, and reshuffle pieces with an eye on competing now, even if the exact shape of the roster is still coming into focus. [Read more 🡒]