The Super Bowl LXI picture looks a lot different now than it did back in August.
Nine weeks into the 2026 NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers have moved to the front of the pack at +540, while the Buffalo Bills sit right behind them at +580. The Jaguars, Bears and Chiefs also remain firmly in the mix, and the odds board tells the story of a season that has already reshuffled the league’s hierarchy.
San Francisco is the clearest example of that shift. The 49ers opened at +1900, with ten teams carrying shorter preseason odds.
Now they’re the favorite, and the results back it up: they’re the lone one-loss team in the NFC and hold the No. 1 seed. It’s San Francisco’s best eight-game start since 2019, the year it also reached the Super Bowl.
Brock Purdy has been sharp, ranking top three in completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating, even with the 49ers dealing with the most games missed due to injury among wide receivers at 39, according to CBS Sports Research. Injuries remain a major issue overall, too, with San Francisco leading the league in games missed due to injury at 159.
John Lynch addressed some of the depth concerns at the trade deadline by adding defensive lineman DeForest Buckner and wide receiver Keenan Allen, and the 49ers should get players like Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and CJ West back soon.
Chicago and Jacksonville have made the biggest leaps on the board.
The Bears have surged from +2400 to +850. That’s a major move for a team that came into the season after going 11-6, winning the NFC North for the first time since 2018 and claiming its first playoff game since 2011.
Caleb Williams looked settled, but Chicago was also staring at the league’s hardest strength of schedule. That kind of setup usually doesn’t end well - the past nine teams to enter a season with the hardest schedule all failed to win a playoff game.
Instead, the Bears have started even better than expected. They’re off to their best nine-game start since 2012, own the NFL’s No. 3 offense and have gotten a boost from a defense that looks revitalized with Jeffery Simmons in the mix.
In a loaded division, Chicago may be the best team in the best division.
Jacksonville’s rise has been just as dramatic. The Jaguars have gone from +3000 to +750 and are rolling through the AFC South, where their six wins match the rest of the division combined.
They’re 14-2 over their last 16 games dating back to last season, and Trevor Lawrence leads all quarterbacks in total touchdowns over that stretch with 42. With the No. 1 seed in the conference within reach, general manager James Gladstone added defensive tackle Jordan Davis, defensive tackle Davon Godchaux and safety Jessie Bates III at the deadline.
Still, there are questions about the Jaguars’ résumé. Their most notable wins came in Week 3 against the Patriots and in Week 4 against Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Their two losses came against the Broncos and Texans. The schedule also gets more interesting from Weeks 13-15, when they play at the Bears, host the Steelers and then go to the Texans.
The Rams, meanwhile, are no longer sitting in that preseason favorite spot.
Los Angeles opened at +550 after loading up on Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, but now sits at +1300, the seventh-shortest number in the league. The Rams are 5-4, and injuries have played a huge part.
Donald and Garrett only played together for the first time this past week, while Matthew Stafford is now without Davante Adams, who has a hamstring injury, and Puka Nacua, who is dealing with a knee issue and turf toe. Kobie Turner is on injured reserve with a groin injury, Poona Ford and Jaylen Watson are out for the year, and Steve Avila is expected to miss several weeks with a hamstring injury.
Even before the injuries piled up, the Rams hadn’t looked like the team they were in 2025. At this point, seeing them still at +1300 is a surprise. The Broncos, Lions, Packers and even the Vikings all look like better bets right now.
In Other News...
Jaguars Injury Report Leaves One Big Week 10 Question
Thursdays injury report offered the Jaguars a more encouraging look as they moved through practice ahead of their matchup with the Titans. Several Jacksonville players were listed as limited or non-participants, but the overall picture pointed in a better direction, with some key names getting back on the field and giving the team a clearer sense of where things stand entering the week.
Tennessees report told a much harsher story, with multiple starters already ruled out and the roster looking thin on both sides of the ball. For Jacksonville, the bigger question now is how much of that progress turns into availability by game time, especially with one important situation still hanging over the week. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars GM Defends The Risk Behind Jacksonvilles Trade Deadline Swings
James Gladstone spent the week defending the Jaguars trade deadline approach, and his message was pretty clear: the moves for Jessie Bates and Jordan Davis were made to make Jacksonville better now, not as some desperate all-in gamble. The Jaguars gave up meaningful draft capital, including early-round picks in 2027 and later selections in 2028 and 2029, but Gladstone framed the deals as part of a broader team-building plan rather than a break from it.
He also pushed back on the idea that the Jaguars are simply tossing future picks aside. Jacksonville still values draft capital, Gladstone said, but the front office is trying to manage it more flexibly by leaning on compensatory picks and keeping room to maneuver. In other words, the Jaguars are betting they can improve the roster without losing sight of the long game, even if the price of doing business looks steep right now. [Read more 🡒]
Trevor Lawrence Could Make Jaguars Fans Notice This Week 10 Stack
With a few notable fantasy regulars sidelined this week, the DFS board has opened up in a way that can make the right Jaguars stack stand out. Trevor Lawrence gets a chance to benefit from a matchup that looks friendlier than usual, and in a week when managers are hunting for value, Jacksonvilles passing game has enough moving parts to draw real attention. Parker Washington and Brenton Strange are among the names that can help make the construction work, especially with opportunity often mattering more than reputation in this part of the season.
The appeal is not just Lawrence in a vacuum, but how the pieces around him could fit together if Jacksonville leans into the passing game. With injuries thinning out other options across the league, the Jaguars have become part of the conversation for lineups looking to balance safety and upside, and that puts extra focus on how the offense distributes targets. For fantasy players, the question is whether this is the week Lawrence and company turn a decent setup into a lineup-winning stack. [Read more 🡒]