The Jacksonville Jaguars are suddenly in a position they haven’t occupied in more than 25 years: chasing the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
At 6-2 after Week 9, Jacksonville has been right there with the best teams in the conference, and the path ahead looks real if the Jaguars keep playing at this level. The last time they entered the playoffs as the top seed was 1999, but that possibility is no longer some far-off dream. It’s on the table.
That became even more true after a wild Monday for Jacksonville. Before the trade deadline, the Jaguars were already playing like one of the league’s elite teams. Then they went out and added Jessie Bates III, Jordan Davis, and Davon Godchaux in a set of major blockbuster moves that only strengthened an already dangerous roster.
The biggest roadblock in the race for the top seed appears to be Buffalo. The Bills beat the Jaguars in last year’s Wild Card round, and they were probably the only team standing between Jacksonville and the Super Bowl a season ago. They look like the main obstacle again, which is exactly why landing Bates before Buffalo could make its move mattered so much.
Buffalo still has two games each against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, but the Bills also have the Broncos, Chicago Bears, and Green Bay Packers left on the schedule. Jacksonville, by contrast, only has to face one of those teams in the second half.
The Bills have also shown they can be pushed, surviving several tight games against teams with worse records. They could easily slip in at least two of those matchups, and that might be enough for the Jaguars.
Denver is another team sitting in the way at 7-2, and the Broncos already beat Jacksonville earlier this season at Mile High. If the two teams finish with the same record, that head-to-head result gives Denver the edge.
The Broncos also have a favorable remaining schedule, with two games against the Raiders, plus the Dolphins, Jets, and Chargers still ahead. They do have potentially tricky dates with the Bills and Steelers, but the overall path is soft.
Even so, Denver hasn’t exactly looked dominant. The Broncos had close calls against the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Chargers, and Bo Nix has their offense looking average at best. They rank No. 16 in offensive EPA/Play, and that doesn’t scream a team ready to cruise through the second half without trouble.
Kansas City, meanwhile, has started to drift back toward the pack after opening 5-0. The Chiefs beat the New York Jets on Sunday, but that came after back-to-back losses to playoff-caliber teams in the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos.
Their only win over a team with a winning record is still Week 1 against Denver, while the rest of their victories have come against opponents with a combined record of 9-34. The record looks better than the resume.
The Chiefs still have a brutal stretch ahead with the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, and the New England Patriots if they ever decide to get serious this season. That’s a much tougher road than Jacksonville’s, and Kansas City doesn’t look like a team built to rip through the second half without more bumps.
The AFC North, as usual, is a mess. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are both 6-2 and look like the most likely teams from the division to make the playoffs.
Cleveland is hanging around at 5-4, though the Browns don’t look as good as that record suggests. Baltimore sits at 4-5 and has struggled without Lamar Jackson while dealing with injuries.
Jacksonville has already handled Cincinnati once, winning in a game that was close on the scoreboard but not nearly as close on the field. The Jaguars had two touchdowns and an interception wiped away in Bengals territory that day, and the defensive upgrades they just made could matter a lot against Joe Burrow.
Bates, in particular, gives them another piece that could tilt that matchup. Cincinnati also has a manageable schedule the rest of the way, but its high-volume passing attack could still get it into trouble in a game it shouldn’t lose, the way it nearly did against the Tennessee Titans.
Pittsburgh is still on the Jaguars’ schedule, with a Monday Night Football meeting at home on Dec. 14.
The Steelers’ passing game is rough, but they do rank No. 1 in rushing EPA/Play and No. 7 in rushing success rate. Adding Davis after losing Davon Hamilton should help Jacksonville in that matchup, but the Steelers don’t look like the kind of team that can win the top seed anyway.
In Other News...
Seahawks Just Added A Big Name To Fix Their Run Game
The trade market has become one of the more active parts of the NFL calendar in 2024, and Jacksonville has already been part of the movement. The Jaguars have added defensive help through deals for Jordan Davis, Jessie Bates III and Davon Godchaux, a clear sign that the front office has not been shy about trying to patch holes while the season is still in motion.
Around the league, the pace has only picked up as the deadline approaches, with 13 in-season trades already completed. Baltimore brought in Jacoby Brissett, Chicago landed Jeffery Simmons and Seattle addressed its own issues by getting guard Quenton Nelson, another reminder that teams are willing to pay for immediate help when they think a roster can still be pushed forward. For Jacksonville, the bigger question is whether its own early moves are enough, or whether the Jaguars will keep working the phones before the market closes. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Pass Rush Search May Not Be Over After Mondays Moves
The Jaguars spent Monday reshaping their roster with three trades, but their work on the pass rush may not be finished. Before those moves, Jacksonville reportedly made a significant offer for Jets defensive end Will McDonald IV, a sign the front office was still looking for another edge presence even as it addressed other needs elsewhere.
McDonald has been open about wanting a change of scenery after seeing reduced playing time, but New York has so far held firm. The Jets still believe in the former first-round picks talent and development, and with McDonald under contract through 2026 plus a fifth-year option for 2027, any pursuit would likely have to become more serious before this one moves any closer to the finish line. [Read more 🡒]
Eagles Just Made A Jordan Davis Move Fans Need To Unpack
With the trade deadline approaching, the Jaguars have been busy trying to patch up a defense that has been hit by injuries and needed more help in both the secondary and the front seven. In a flurry of moves, Jacksonville added Jordan Davis, Davon Godchaux and Jessie Bates, sending draft picks to the Eagles, Saints and Falcons as part of a clear push to get sturdier on that side of the ball.
For a team trying to stay in the mix, the appeal is obvious: Davis brings size up front, Godchaux adds another body to the interior and Bates gives the back end a proven presence. The cost in picks shows how aggressively Jacksonville is treating this stretch of the season, and it also leaves the bigger question of how quickly all three can settle in and make the defense look more complete. [Read more 🡒]