Football is back, and Week 1 Survivor pools are already forcing players to make a call earlier than usual. With the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks kicking off the 2026 season on Wednesday, entries have to be in sooner, and the SI Betting team is once again lining up its favorite picks.
The biggest favorite on the board is the Los Angeles Chargers, who enter as a double-digit favorite against the Arizona Cardinals. That makes them an obvious name to circle, and there’s also a broader Survivor angle with Los Angeles this season because of a second-place schedule and later matchups with Las Vegas twice and Miami.
Still, the team drawing the strongest case here is the Jacksonville Jaguars. After finishing 13-4 in 2025, Jacksonville opens with a tough first-place schedule that includes seven games against playoff teams from last season. That makes Week 1 against the Cleveland Browns one of the cleaner spots to use them, along with their two games against the Tennessee Titans later in the year.
Jacksonville is laying 8.5 points in this one, and that number moved after Deshaun Watson was named Cleveland’s starter. Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, said, “The only one we saw somewhat significant move was Jags-Browns,” Ty Gour Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook told Sports Illustrated.
“That moved from 7.5 to 8.5, and that seemed to happen in tune with the news that Deshaun Watson is going to be the QB1. And then his subsequent preseason performance.”
Watson’s Cleveland run has been rough. He has won just nine of his 19 starts while throwing 12 interceptions, and the Browns were 1-6 in the 2024 season when he started.
The Jaguars also get a boost from the Browns’ defense taking a hit with the loss of Myles Garrett. Cleveland was fourth in the league in EPA/Play last season, and while Jared Verse is described as a strong replacement, Garrett’s production was on another level. He set the sack record and was an absolute game-wrecker.
If Cleveland’s defense slips, the path for Watson to go into Jacksonville and steal a road win looks shaky. The Browns were 2-6 against the spread on the road last season, while the Jaguars covered in seven of their nine home games.
Peter Dewey still sees some regression risk after Jacksonville’s 13-4 season, but he likes them to win outright in Week 1.
Iain MacMillan is taking a different kind of swing, saying a bad team in Week 1 can pay off if it gets you ahead of the field right away. He also points to the Miami Dolphins as a team worth fading throughout the season, calling their roster “arguably the worst in the NFL after stripping it to its bones this past offseason.”
For his Survivor play, MacMillan is looking at the Las Vegas Raiders. He notes they’re not a playoff team, but says they’re a couple of years into their rebuild and have legitimate pieces like Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers.
He also says, “Kirk Cousins is past his prime, but he’s more than a serviceable quarterback for this Week 1 game. Let’s take a chance on the Raiders taking care of business in Week 1.”
In Other News...
Jaguars Face A Fanbase Shift Jacksonville Wont Be Able To Ignore
The Jaguars are about to spend a season in a very different kind of home setup, with their 2027 games moving to Camping World Stadium in Orlando while their own stadium goes through a massive renovation. The project is already reshaping the teams 2026 home capacity, and the temporary move adds another layer to a stretch that already includes two home games in London, making the familiar rhythms of Jaguars football a lot less familiar.
Orlando has never hosted a regular-season NFL game before, so the switch will be more than a logistical detour for Jacksonville. It will give the organization a chance to see how its fanbase travels, how much local interest can be built outside Northeast Florida, and how much of the clubs identity can survive being spread across different cities for a season. For a franchise that has spent years trying to strengthen its home-field feel, the next chapter could be revealing in ways that go well beyond the standings. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Suddenly Have A Crucial Week 1 Backfield Question
LeQuint Allens return to the practice field this week gave the Jaguars at least a little more clarity heading into Sundays opener, though not enough to settle the backfield picture just yet. After missing previous weeks with a soft tissue injury, the rookie running back was limited in Thursdays practice, a meaningful step for a player who has been working to get healthy in time for Week 1 against the Browns.
Even with that progress, Liam Coen said Allen remains a game-time decision, which leaves Jacksonville waiting on one of the more quietly important pieces of its offensive plan. Grant Udinski has already singled out Allens pass protection as a key part of what he brings, so the Jaguars are not just monitoring his health but also weighing how much they can rely on him if he is available on Sunday. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Opener Will Show If Trevor Lawrence And This Hype Are Real
The Jaguars head into their opener against Cleveland with a sense that this season should tell a real story about where Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the operation stand. Liam Coen is back for his second year, most of the coaching staff remains intact, and Lawrence is coming off a strong previous season with enough continuity around him to make Jacksonville look like a team ready to push forward.
Still, the first test comes with a few things that could shape how smooth that push actually is. Jacksonville has questions in the backfield and up front, even with key pieces returning, and the Browns bring their own reset under a new head coach and defensive coordinator. With Deshaun Watson set to start after a long injury absence, the opener should offer an early read on how real the Jaguars optimism is, and how much of it survives contact with a defense that will be trying to spoil the party. [Read more 🡒]