The Week 4 matchup between the Jaguars and Bengals has the feel of a tight AFC measuring stick game, and the line says as much. Cincinnati is favored by just 2.5 points, even with Jacksonville carrying a 2-1 record and coming off its most complete performance of the young season.
Jacksonville heads to Cincinnati after flattening the New England Patriots in Week 3, a win that pushed the Jaguars to No. 1 in the league in EPA/Pass on defense. That kind of showing doesn’t happen by accident.
The Jaguars have now put together three solid outings, with dominant wins over Cleveland and New England and a narrow loss to Denver in Week 2. In that Broncos game, Jacksonville controlled much of the action before fading late in a tough road setting.
Trevor Lawrence has been a big reason the Jaguars have looked so sharp. He has seven touchdown passes and just two interceptions this season, and he’s played like a different quarterback since the second half of the 2025 season.
The bigger picture matters too: after winning the AFC South at 13-4 in 2025, Jacksonville has started 2026 looking every bit like a real contender again. Right now, it’s the only team above .500 in the division.
Cincinnati comes in at 2-1 as well, but the Bengals are trying to bounce back from a Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers that snapped a two-game winning streak. That defeat also exposed a defense that had started the season so well it had climbed into the top 10 in EPA/Play, only to stumble badly against Aaron Rodgers and company. Rodgers threw three touchdowns in that game.
The Bengals still have star power, and Ja’Marr Chase is the name that jumps out most in this matchup. He’s up to 18 catches for 185 yards and three touchdowns this season, including nine receptions for 98 yards and a score in Week 3. After a quiet opener, Chase has now posted 75 receiving yards in back-to-back games, and Joe Burrow should keep feeding him against a Jacksonville defense that has been excellent but did allow Jaylen Waddle to go for 100 yards in Week 2.
That said, Jacksonville’s defense is in a different place now than it was a couple weeks ago. After holding New England to six points, the Jaguars are fourth in the NFL in EPA/Play and eighth in success rate. They also made Drake Maye look like a backup quarterback in Week 3.
There’s also an offensive comparison worth noting. Cincinnati’s wins over Tampa Bay and Houston looked strong at the time, but those teams are now a combined 0-6 in 2026. And on the stat sheet, the Bengals trail Jacksonville in EPA/Play and yards per play this season, with the Jags fifth in EPA/Play and Cincinnati ninth.
So while the Bengals are the home favorite, the number is short enough to make Jacksonville appealing. The Jaguars have earned respect with the way they’ve played through three weeks, and getting 2.5 points in a game this close feels like the sharper side.
In Other News...
Jaguars Are Off To A Strong Start But One Doubt Remains
Through three weeks of the 2026 season, Jacksonville has done enough to stay in the early Super Bowl conversation. The Jaguars are 2-1, and Trevor Lawrence has steered the offense efficiently enough to keep them in the mix while other contenders around the league have already taken on some early damage.
Still, the opening month has only sharpened the question that follows any fast start in September: how real is it? Seattle is also 2-1 despite a recent loss, and Cincinnati is right there too even after a surprising setback to Pittsburgh, so the Jaguars are hardly alone near the top of the standings. For Jacksonville, the challenge now is proving that this is more than a good September run and something that can hold up as the season settles in. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Fast Start Is Creating A Bigger Contender Debate
The Jaguars fast start has done more than pad the standings. After their Week 3 win over the Patriots, Jacksonville piled up a stack of franchise and league marks that have turned a good opening into a legitimate talking point around the NFL. Liam Coen also reached 15 wins faster than any coach in franchise history, a reminder that this team is moving at a pace the organization has not seen in a while.
A six-game home winning streak and a defense that has been shutting down the run while creating takeaways have helped fuel the surge, and the national power rankings have started to reflect it, with Jacksonville landing anywhere from fifth to 10th. The next question is the one that tends to follow every hot September in Jacksonville: whether this start is just a strong opening or the first real evidence that the Jaguars belong in the contender conversation for real. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Suddenly Face A Brian Thomas Jr. Question They Can't Ignore
Brian Thomas Jr.s Week 3 usage was one of the quieter developments in Jacksonvilles win over New England, but it may end up being one of the more interesting ones to watch. The second-year receiver was on the field for just 23 snaps and finished with one catch, a workload that stood out for a player expected to be a central part of the Jaguars passing game. Head coach Liam Coen said the reduced playing time was not a message, pointing instead to the teams heavier use of 12 personnel and the specific jobs being handed out around the offense.
Still, the bigger issue is what that usage says about where Thomas fits as the Jaguars lean into those tighter formations. More 12 personnel means fewer receiver snaps to go around, and that has opened the door for other targets to carve out more visible roles. Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington have been part of that mix, and Jacksonville now has a real question to answer about whether Thomas is simply being managed within the system or drifting into a lesser role than the one many expected for him. [Read more 🡒]