The records say Jaguars, but the matchup in London has enough cracks in it to make Sunday feel a lot less straightforward than 4-1 against 1-4.
Jacksonville arrives at Wembley Stadium as a 2.5-point favorite after hanging on for a 19-17 win over Philadelphia. Houston, meanwhile, finally got on track with a 26-3 win over Tennessee and then added Marvin Harrison Jr.
That’s the backdrop for a set of bold calls that go well beyond a close game or a respectable effort from C.J. Stroud.
The Texans are being projected to deliver their most complete performance of the season.
The biggest swing in the forecast comes through the air. Jacksonville’s defense has been excellent overall, allowing only 14 points per game, good for second in the NFL.
But the pass defense has been the softer spot, with the Jaguars giving up 277.2 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th. That’s why the Texans are being pointed toward Stroud, not a steady diet of runs into Jacksonville’s best strength.
On paper, the Jaguars are elite against the run, allowing an NFL-best 63.8 rushing yards per game and just 2.9 yards per carry.
Stroud’s numbers already give Houston a real path. He has 1,402 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through five games.
Against Tennessee, he went 26 of 34 for 261 yards, and he was especially sharp under pressure, completing eight of 11 pressured throws for 115 yards. The prediction here is not just volume, though.
Houston has to turn those throws into touchdowns, something it hasn’t always done. Harrison’s arrival gives the Texans another option, but his debut and workload are still uncertain.
The heart of this call is Stroud’s current production and Jacksonville’s vulnerability through the air.
The defensive side is just as aggressive. Anderson is coming off a three-sack performance against Tennessee, part of a Texans game in which Houston recorded four total sacks.
The bold prediction takes that a step further: four sacks for Anderson alone. That’s not a small bump.
It would be a huge statement against a better opponent.
Houston’s defense has reason for confidence after holding Tennessee to 187 total yards and three points once DeMeco Ryans took back play-calling duties. The Titans’ offense is not a perfect measuring stick, but the Texans still rank ninth in yards allowed per play, and that matters here.
Jacksonville is a much tougher test, but it also showed vulnerability against Philadelphia. Trevor Lawrence threw for 331 yards and two touchdowns in that game, yet he also threw an interception and lost a fumble.
That creates the third piece of the forecast: three Houston takeaways. The idea is simple enough - pressure has to turn into possession changes, not just hurried throws and empty snaps.
Houston can’t let Jacksonville keep resetting after sacks. It needs to make the Jaguars pay.
Penalties could help the Texans do exactly that. Jacksonville has committed at least 13 penalties and piled up more than 100 penalty yards in back-to-back games. That kind of backward movement can force the Jaguars into more predictable passing situations, which is exactly where Anderson can keep coming.
Taken together, the boldest version of this game has Houston pulling off a much bigger result than the records suggest. Jacksonville has allowed just 70 points across five games, and its 4-1 record still carries weight.
But the Jaguars also needed a 53-yard kickoff return and Cam Little’s 57-yard field goal to survive Philadelphia. That finish showed grit, but it also showed how thin the margin was.
If Stroud hits four touchdown passes and Anderson keeps wrecking plays in the backfield, the Texans can turn Jacksonville’s mistakes into short fields and fast points. That’s how the upset starts to stop looking like a long shot and start looking like the afternoon in London.
In Other News...
Eagles Loss Sparked A Broadcast Debate Fans Are Still Arguing Over
The closing seconds of the Jaguars win over the Eagles in London should have been remembered for the walk-off field goal, but the broadcast moment that stuck with plenty of viewers came a little later. As the game wrapped up, an ESPN cameraman centered the shot on a young Eagles fan in tears, turning a postgame reaction into the kind of TV image that immediately took on a life of its own online.
Social media split quickly over the decision, with some fans criticizing the network for lingering on the child and others arguing it was simply part of live sports coverage. ESPN has not commented on the incident, leaving the debate to keep simmering long after Jacksonvilles victory was secure. [Read more 🡒]
Eagles Loss Got Overshadowed By A Broadcast Mess Fans Hated
The Jaguars trip to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium ended with one of their cleanest overseas finishes in years, a 19-17 win over the Eagles sealed by Cam Littles last-second 57-yard field goal. For Jacksonville, it was the kind of international showcase the franchise can point to with real pride, a tense game decided late and a road-style atmosphere that gave the victory some extra weight.
Still, a lot of the conversation afterward had little to do with the final score. The NFL Network broadcast drew heavy criticism for technical problems throughout the game, with viewers flagging missed replays, audio issues and even a stadium sound blackout that made the telecast feel broken at times. For Jaguars fans and anyone tuning in to watch a statement win, the on-field finish was memorable enough, but the viewing experience left plenty of people frustrated. [Read more 🡒]
Cam Little Twisted The Knife After A Jaguars Road Stunner
The Jaguars walked out of Philadelphia with one of their sharpest wins of the season, a 19-17 road stunner sealed by a last-second field goal. It was the kind of finish that turns a routine regular-season game into a talking point for the rest of the week, especially with Eagles coach Nick Sirianni shouldering responsibility for a late-game decision that helped swing the result.
Cam Little made sure the celebration did not end on the field. After the game, the Jaguars kicker took to social media and aimed a taunt at Eagles fans, adding a little extra edge to a win that already landed hard. For Jacksonville, it was another reminder that a big road victory can linger well beyond the final whistle when the opposing crowd is already bruised. [Read more 🡒]