The Jaguars are back in Jacksonville after their London stretch, and the setup looks ugly for the Colts. Indianapolis comes in having dropped three straight and carrying a 1-3 road mark, while the offseason mess keeps getting louder with Jonathan Taylor now in trade rumors after the team already moved Quenton Nelson.
Jacksonville didn’t exactly dominate overseas, but it did split its two games in London by beating the Eagles and then losing to the Texans. A bye week gave the Jaguars time to reset before hosting an Indianapolis team that already lost both meetings between these clubs last season, with each of those games coming in December.
The betting market has reacted hard to the news around the Colts. Jacksonville opened at -7.5 and has climbed into double-digit favorite territory, while the total has stayed put at 46.5.
That move lines up with the way the matchup looks on paper. SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan called the Colts a bottom-three team in the league, noting they’re 31st in net yards per play at -1.3 and sit in the bottom third in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play. He also pointed out that Jonathan Taylor and the run game are basically the offense’s only real path.
That’s where Jacksonville has a clear edge. The Jaguars rank fourth in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate, and they allow just 3.2 yards per carry, the fewest in the league. If that number holds, the Colts could be stuck without much of a plan.
The spread has moved since MacMillan made his pick, but the case for Jacksonville still looks strong enough to back the Jaguars laying -10. There’s also the chance Indianapolis handles Taylor cautiously if the trade rumors are real, and even if it doesn’t, the Colts can only lean on the ground game so much if they fall behind.
Jacksonville has already shown what it can do at home this season, blowing out the Browns and Patriots in its two true home games. With the bye in the rearview mirror and the Colts limping in, another comfortable Jaguars win feels like the way this one goes.
In Other News...
Jaguars May Have Found A Rookie Starter Fans Can't Ignore
The Jaguars have gotten an immediate return from Emmanuel Pregnon, the third-round pick who has stepped straight into the left guard job and handled it like a veteran. Through his first six games, he has been on the field for 382 offensive snaps and has yet to allow a sack, a strong early sign for a rookie who arrived with real expectations after earning first-team All-American honors at Oregon.
Sports Illustrateds Justin Melo recently ranked Pregnon as the top third-round rookie, pointing to the kind of early impact Jacksonville has been looking for up front. There have been some pressures and penalties along the way, which is hardly unusual for a first-year lineman, but the bigger picture is hard to miss: the Jaguars may have found a starter they can trust right away, and the rest of the season will show how far that trust can go. [Read more 🡒]
Brian Thomas Jr. Is Suddenly At Center Of A Jaguars Trade Idea
A speculative trade idea has put Brian Thomas Jr. in the middle of a conversation the Jaguars probably did not expect to be having this early in the season. Fox Sports analyst Steven Ruiz and ESPNs Ben Solak both floated a potential swap with Kansas City that would send Xavier Worthy to Jacksonville and Thomas the other way, framing it as a way for both teams to address different needs through two receivers with very different profiles and contract situations.
For the Jaguars, the notion is especially striking because Thomas has quickly become the kind of player around whom teams build, not one they casually place into hypothetical deals. Nothing has been announced by either club, and this remains firmly in the realm of outside speculation, but the proposal is still notable because it shows how highly Thomas is valued and how much attention Jacksonvilles receiver room is drawing beyond its own building. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars May Need One Bold Trade To Fix Their Biggest Weakness
The NFL trade market is already starting to shape the conversation around how the Jaguars can patch up their roster, and the defensive line sits near the top of the list. Under general manager James Gladstone, Jacksonville has shown a willingness to explore trades, which makes this a natural place to look if the team wants a quicker fix than waiting for the draft or free agency to do the heavy lifting.
Players such as Payne and Ojomo are the kinds of names that make sense on paper because of their fit and contract situations, but this is still a matter of possibility rather than something concrete. For a Jaguars team trying to strengthen its front, the question is whether the right deal is out there and whether Jacksonville is ready to be aggressive enough to pull it off. [Read more 🡒]