The Patriots head to Jacksonville on Sunday with a point to prove, and the betting market is treating this one like a coin flip.
New England and Jacksonville both came into 2026 with big expectations after finishing among the AFC’s top three teams last season, but each has already taken a loss through two games. The Jaguars are now laying a field goal at home, with the total ticking up from 44.5 to 45.5 as oddsmakers continue to nudge this matchup toward a tight, lower-scoring kind of game.
For the Patriots, the biggest issue has been the offense. Drake Maye has thrown four interceptions, and New England has landed in the bottom 10 in EPA/Play.
That said, the defense has carried plenty of weight. The Patriots beat Pittsburgh at home in Week 2 behind a unit that has allowed just 16 points across two games, including only three against the Steelers.
That defensive strength is the main reason New England is still very much in the conversation here, even after Jacksonville opened as a 2.5-point favorite and moved to 3-point chalk early in the week. The Jaguars are coming off a loss to Denver after blowing a lead on Sunday, and while Week 1 was a different story - a dominant win over the Deshaun Watson-led Browns - there’s skepticism about leaning too hard on that result.
New England’s own offensive track record from last season matters, too. Maye and the Patriots were one of the best teams in the league in EPA/Play on offense a year ago, and there’s a belief that the first two weeks of 2026 aren’t the true standard. The return of TreVeyon Henderson in Week 2 also gave the run game a needed lift.
Jacksonville’s defense has been more vulnerable than the standings might suggest, allowing 6.1 yards per play, which ranks 29th in the NFL. That opens the door for New England to take another step forward on offense and maybe even steal the game outright.
Still, with the line sitting at three, the safer side is the Patriots getting the points. New England is 1-0-1 against the spread so far this season, and this looks like another spot where a strong defense can keep things close.
In Other News...
Trevor Lawrence Hints At A Jaguars Passing Game Shift vs Patriots
Trevor Lawrence is already looking for ways to widen the Jaguars passing attack as Jacksonville heads into its Week 3 matchup with New England. One name at the center of that discussion is Jakobi Meyers, who has been targeted only three times through two games but has made the most of those looks, turning them into 68 yards and a touchdown while giving the offense a reliable target when called upon.
Lawrence praised Meyers route running and his grasp of the offense, a sign the Jaguars want to make him a more consistent part of the game plan. For a passing game still settling into rhythm early in the season, the focus isnt just on getting Meyers the ball more often, but on creating the kind of role that makes him harder for defenses to ignore. [Read more 🡒]
Trevor Lawrence Just Got Extra Motivation For A Huge Jaguars Response
Trevor Lawrence is getting a little external validation at just the right time. Patriots coach Mike Vrabel, who spent years seeing the Jaguars quarterback up close in the AFC South, said Lawrence has looked more decisive, more careful with the ball and more willing to push it downfield while still using his legs to extend plays. For a Jacksonville offense trying to find steadier footing, praise like that from a defensive-minded coach carries some weight, especially when it comes with a reminder of how far Lawrence has come.
Lawrence, meanwhile, made it clear the Jaguars are approaching this week with a lot of film work behind them. He said the coaching staff has studied past games against the Titans to help the offense get ready for New England's defensive scheme, a detail that underscores how much Jacksonville is leaning on familiar AFC South lessons to solve a different problem. The question now is whether that preparation, paired with Lawrence's growth, turns into the kind of response the Jaguars have been looking for. [Read more 🡒]
C.J. Stroud Just Showed How Vital Dalton Schultz Is To Texans
Even with one of their top wide receivers sidelined, the Texans still had enough structure on offense to keep moving, and a big reason was Dalton Schultz. C.J. Stroud made it clear during the game that Schultzs value goes well beyond the box score, pointing to the tight ends steady contributions and leadership as Houston had to lean on other options for production.
For the Jaguars, that matters because it is another reminder of how much divisional games can hinge on the quiet, dependable players who keep an offense on schedule. Jacksonville already has plenty of its own talking points after Liam Coen pushed back on the defensive pass interference call against Travis Hunter, but Schultzs role in Houston is the kind of detail that can shape games long before the fourth quarter becomes the focus. [Read more 🡒]