The Jaguars and Texans meet in London on Sunday morning, and the betting market has already told a pretty clear story: Jacksonville is favored, but not by nearly as much as a 4-1 team against a 1-4 team might suggest. That gap is part of what makes this AFC South matchup at Wembley more interesting than the records alone.
Jacksonville comes in off last week’s win over Philadelphia in London and will serve as the designated home team again. The Jaguars are 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread, and under Liam Coen they’ve been a strong bet when laying points, going 9-3 ATS as favorites.
The bigger picture is that they’ve been efficient on both sides of the ball, sitting top 10 in EPA per play on offense and defense. Still, there’s a crack in the profile: Jacksonville’s defense ranks 22nd in yards per play allowed, which keeps the door open.
Houston finally got into the win column in Week 5, and C.J. Stroud was the reason.
He’s up to 1,402 passing yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions, and in the win over Tennessee he threw for 261 yards and added a rushing score to snap the 0-4 start. The Texans’ defense has held up better than the record suggests, ranking ninth in yards per play allowed.
The problem is the supporting cast around Stroud remains thin, with Nico Collins missing multiple games, Tank Dell on IR, and Jalen Pitre and David Montgomery questionable early in the week. Marvin Harrison Jr. arrived by trade on October 11.
Houston is also 1-4 ATS, though it has won three of the last four meetings with Jacksonville.
That combination has pushed the spread around a bit. This game was Jaguars -3 with a total of 43.5 earlier in the week at DraftKings, but both numbers have come down. The latest board shows Jacksonville mostly sitting at -2.5, while the total is down to 42.5.
The stronger angle here is the under. Jacksonville’s games have gone under four times in five, Houston is dealing with a depleted receiving group, and the Texans’ defense is the best unit on the field by yards per play. The main danger is a defensive or special-teams touchdown, which would put the total in a rough spot.
Jacksonville -2.5 is the secondary look, but the moneyline is less appealing. Laying under a field goal with the better team makes sense, especially with the Jaguars already having played at Wembley a week ago. Even so, Houston’s recent success in the matchup is the reason not to push too hard on the favorite.
Odds as of October 14.
In Other News...
Texans Arrive In London With A Problem Jaguars Can Exploit
Houston is heading to London with some notable holes, and that matters for Jacksonville in a game that already has plenty of intrigue. Tank Dell is out, David Montgomery is out, and Jalen Pitre is out, leaving the Texans shorthanded on both sides of the ball as they prepare to face a Jaguars team that has leaned on its passing game.
For Jacksonville, the matchup now looks even more favorable on paper. The missing pieces in Houston's secondary and skill-position group could force the Texans to adjust quickly, and that is not an ideal assignment against a Jaguars offense that has shown it can make defenses pay through the air. It is the kind of early-week development that can quietly shape how this game gets played once the teams get to London. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Trade Talk Around A Core Piece Says A Lot Right Now
With the NFL trade deadline approaching, the Jaguars are getting a familiar kind of attention around a roster that still has a few pieces other teams would love to pry loose. Brian Thomas Jr. sits at the center of that conversation as a deep-threat receiver who changes how defenses line up, while Arik Armstead remains one of the more important voices and bodies on a defense that has needed it. Patrick Mekari also hangs in the mix as a veteran offensive lineman whose value is easy to see, especially with injuries testing the front.
What makes the discussion interesting is not just who could draw calls, but what it says about where Jacksonville thinks it stands right now. Teams do not start weighing moves like this unless they believe certain players can help shape the long view, and the Jaguars have to balance that against being competitive in the moment. Even if Armstead feels unlikely to go and Mekari's appeal is tied to need up front, the fact that Thomas is even part of the conversation shows how thin the line can be between building around a core piece and listening when the phone rings. [Read more 🡒]
Chiefs Still Have One Trade Need As Deadline Pressure Builds
The Chiefs have opened the season in strong shape, but the injury hit at wide receiver has kept one need hanging over their roster as the trade deadline approaches. Kansas City is being linked to Jacksonvilles Brian Thomas Jr. as a possible answer, a name that makes sense on paper because of the upside he would bring and the urgency the Chiefs feel to add help on the perimeter.
For Jacksonville, the idea would be hard to justify unless the offer became impossible to ignore. Thomas has not been as productive as expected, but the Jaguars are not showing much interest in moving him, even with Kansas Citys need growing and a second-round pick floated as the kind of return that could get talks moving. The closer the deadline gets, the more this becomes the sort of rumor that says as much about the Chiefs problem as it does about the Jaguars plans. [Read more 🡒]