ESPN’s Bill Barnwell sees the Jacksonville Jaguars as one of the NFL teams “most likely to decline” in 2026, even after a 13-4 season in Year 1 under Liam Coen.
Barnwell’s case starts with the kind of numbers that tend to cool off fast. Jacksonville went 6-2 in one-score games, a record that usually doesn’t hold up from one season to the next. The Jaguars also finished top five in turnover margin and fumble recovery rate, two areas that are notoriously hard to bank on again.
He also dug into how the Jaguars finished their run to the AFC South title. Jacksonville closed the year on an eight game-winning streak, but Barnwell says the schedule helped shape that finish.
“Over the final nine games, the Jaguars faced the opposing starter for a complete game only twice, with the Titans getting a full start from Cam Ward and the Broncos getting one from Bo Nix,” Barnwell wrote. “Six of the other seven games were almost entirely against second-, third- or even fourth-string options”
Barnwell added that Jacksonville was one of the healthier teams in football last season, and the Jaguars will also have a lot of road games this year.
Put together, the numbers point toward a team that may be more likely to win fewer games in 2026 than it did in 2025. That said, the source of that expectation is partly the fact that Jacksonville won so many games in the first place.
There are still reasons for optimism. The Jaguars are entering a second season in the same offensive and defensive systems, which gives them a chance to build instead of starting over. Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. have also looked stronger together this summer, the secondary has played well, and Travon Walker has been fully healthy.
Maybe Barnwell’s piece ends up giving Coen a little extra fuel to show the team.
In Other News...
Jaguars Defense Just Got The Kind Of National Respect Fans Wanted
For a Jaguars defense that has spent plenty of time trying to prove it belongs in the leagues upper tier, ESPNs Mike Clay offering this kind of preseason respect is a notable development. Clay ranked Jacksonvilles edge rushers fifth heading into the 2026 NFL season, putting Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker among the best front-line duos in football and giving the unit a national spotlight that has not always followed the Jaguars around.
The praise did not stop there, either. Clay also placed Jacksonvilles cornerback group inside the top 10, with Travis Hunter, Jourdan Lewis, Montaric Brown and Jarrian Jones all part of the conversation, while the linebacker room landed just outside that range at No. 11. For a team that wants its defense to set the tone, the broader question now is whether this recognition turns into something even more meaningful once the season gets going. [Read more 🡒]
Brian Thomas Jr. Injury Concern Just Got Some Relief
Brian Thomas Jr. gave the Jaguars a small but important bit of good news heading into the next game, with head coach Liam Coen saying the young receiver is expected to be ready after dealing with a shoulder injury. For a Jacksonville offense that leans heavily on Thomas as one of its most dynamic playmakers, any concern around his availability tends to change the conversation quickly, especially this time of year when every week can matter for rhythm and playoff positioning.
The update does not erase the reason for the concern in the first place, but it does keep the Jaguars from having to spend the week bracing for a worst-case scenario. Thomas has become central to what Jacksonville wants to do through the air, so getting him back on track would stabilize a passing game that needs its top targets in place and, at minimum, gives Coen one less lineup question to manage before the next kickoff. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Joint Practice Just Clarified A Key Travis Hunter Debate
A joint practice with the Buccaneers gave the Jaguars a clearer look at how they want to deploy Travis Hunter, and the early answer leaned heavily toward cornerback. Hunter spent most of his work on defense, a notable clue in a camp where Jacksonville is also trying to settle other key jobs, including rookie guard Emmanuel Pregnon locking down the left guard spot as the team keeps building continuity up front.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. also picked up plenty of work, especially in passing situations, while LeQuint Allen was out with an injury, adding another layer to the Jaguars backfield picture. But the biggest takeaway from the day was how much emphasis Jacksonville placed on its defensive backfield and offensive line, two areas where the Jaguars are still trying to sharpen chemistry before the season begins. [Read more 🡒]