The Jaguars come out of their bye week with a divisional test that looks manageable on paper, but the staff at Big Cat Country still sees a few pressure points worth watching. Jacksonville gets the Colts at home, where the Jags are riding an 11-game winning streak, and the question is whether they show up like a team ready to tighten its grip on the AFC South or like one that keeps letting lesser opponents hang around.
One concern keeps surfacing: the Jaguars’ habit of making things harder than they need to be. Jacksonville has dropped games to the Texans and came within eight seconds of losing to the Eagles, and both of those opponents have a combined record of 4-10 this season. That’s why the Colts, a team that has basically punted on the season already, feel like a useful measuring stick for whether the Jaguars can take care of business without drama.
The other big theme is the run defense. Jacksonville has been one of the league’s best units at stopping the run over the last two seasons, but the Texans still managed 114 rushing yards against them before the bye.
The Colts bring a different kind of challenge with Jonathan Taylor, who remains the centerpiece of their offense. The Jaguars rank second in the NFL in explosive rushing gains allowed, giving up just 7 through the first six games, while Indianapolis ranks eighth with 23.
That matchup sits right at the heart of this game.
There’s also a real injury-related concern in the secondary. Antonio Johnson should be back soon from his ankle injury, but with Caleb Ransaw on injured reserve, the Jaguars are thin at safety. The Colts may not be built to exploit that weakness, but another shaky outing could push Jacksonville toward adding a veteran at the position.
Trade talk is part of the conversation too. The staff sees the deadline as a possible way for Jacksonville to get better, especially on the defensive line. The question isn’t just whether the Jaguars can add help, but whether that kind of move would actually help in the long run.
As for how Jacksonville wins, the answers circle back to the same core ideas: stop Taylor, run the ball, and keep the game simple. Taylor has been the difference in Colts wins over the Jaguars, with Indianapolis going 3-6 all-time against Jacksonville with Taylor in the backfield and winning all three of those games when he topped 100 yards.
On the other side, the Colts rank 22nd in opponent rushing yards allowed per game, and that was before they traded away interior force DeForest Buckner to San Francisco. With Indianapolis struggling to tackle and Bhayshul Tuten forcing missed tackles, this looks like a favorable setup for Jacksonville on the ground, especially with a potentially rainy Sunday in Duval.
Still, one staffer pointed to quarterback play in the biggest moments as the real separator. The Jaguars may win the box score on the ground, but the edge could come from Trevor Lawrence simply being the better quarterback to move the chains.
Another view was even simpler: don’t overcomplicate a game against a Colts team that is “nuking itself into oblivion” and should be a pushover. In that version of the script, Lawrence is out by the fourth quarter and Jacksonville never lets it get weird.
The X-factor discussion brought up a few different angles. One focus is the Colts’ interior line, where rookie left guard Jalen Farmer is set to start after Indianapolis traded away Quenton Nelson.
Farmer has only three offensive snaps this season, and that could open the door for Arik Armstead and/or Ruke Orhorhoro to make noise. Another angle flips the spotlight to Jacksonville’s own interior battle, with Emmanuel Pregnon facing Grover Stewart and Adetomiwa Adebawore.
Pregnon has shown major promise throughout 2026, while Adebawore has improved his hand placement and quickness this year.
There’s also a backfield wrinkle. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is in the mix after posting 11 carries for 55 yards in Week 6, compared with 12 carries for 39 yards for Bhayshul Tuten. Tuten still looks like the lead back moving forward, but Rodriguez is part of what Liam Coen wants to be a 1-2 punch, and a solid 50-yard, 1-TD outing is on the table.
And then there’s Brian Thomas Jr., who came up in a more speculative X-factor idea: could the Jaguars manufacture catches for him to potentially bolster his trade status before the deadline? The thought was simple enough - feed him heavily against a downtrodden Colts team, maybe get him over 100 yards, and then see what happens next.
The picks leaned firmly toward Jacksonville. One staff prediction had the Jaguars winning 21-13, another had them taking it 26-9, and the most lopsided call of the bunch landed at Jaguars 35, Colts 10.
In Other News...
Jaguars May Have Found A Rookie Starter Fans Can't Ignore
The Jaguars have gotten an immediate return from Emmanuel Pregnon, and that is not something every rookie lineman can say this deep into a season. A third-round pick out of Oregon, Pregnon has stepped straight into the left guard job and started all six games, handling 382 offensive snaps while keeping the pocket clean enough to avoid surrendering a sack.
Sports Illustrateds Justin Melo recently ranked Pregnon as the top third-round rookie, a nod to how quickly he has settled in and how steady he has looked for Jacksonville. There have been some pressures and penalties along the way, but the overall picture is of a player who arrived with first-team All-American credentials and has already made himself hard to take off the field. [Read more 🡒]
Jonathan Taylor Just Put Jaguars Colts Week Into A Different Light
The Colts week against Jacksonville has taken on a far different feel with Jonathan Taylors status hanging over it. Indianapolis is still weighing whether to put its star running back on the field while trade talks continue, and the timing matters because any game-day decision now carries both competitive and business implications for a player the market reportedly values at a second-round pick or better.
For the Jaguars, it adds another layer to a division matchup that was already going to draw attention. If Taylor is active, the Colts have to balance the chance of helping themselves on the field against the risk of something going wrong before a deal gets done, and if he sits, it only sharpens the sense that this game is being shaped by more than just the standings. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Trade Deadline Search Just Got More Complicated Up Front
The Jaguars search for help up front at the trade deadline just got a little trickier with Washington defensive tackle Daron Payne reportedly suffering a serious foot injury in practice and expected to land on injured reserve. Payne had been one of the more intriguing names for teams looking to fortify the interior of their defensive line, and his availability would have mattered for a Jacksonville club still sorting through its options as the deadline approaches.
With Payne now off the board, the market for defensive tackles only gets thinner, which leaves the Jaguars weighing a handful of other speculative possibilities. Moro Ojomo, Vita Vea, DaVon Hamilton, Zach Sieler and Roy Lopez have all come up as names to watch, but there is no clear answer yet on which direction Jacksonville might take, or whether it can find the kind of interior upgrade it is clearly exploring. [Read more 🡒]