Jaguars vs. Broncos: High-Stakes Showdown Between Two AFC Heavyweights
Week 16 brings us one of the most intriguing matchups of the NFL season: the red-hot Jacksonville Jaguars taking on the surging Denver Broncos. A few months ago, this game wouldn’t have jumped off the schedule, but here we are-both teams are on fire, both are playoff-bound, and both have something to prove as the postseason looms.
Let’s start with Jacksonville. After a brutal loss to the Texans earlier this season that had many questioning their trajectory, the Jaguars have ripped off five straight wins to climb to 10-4.
That run has put them atop the AFC South, though Houston is still breathing down their necks. The good news for Jacksonville?
They control their own destiny. The better news?
Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career.
Lawrence is coming off a monster performance against the Jets, torching New York for 381 total yards and six touchdowns in a 48-20 blowout. He’s locked in, confident, and making throws with the kind of poise and precision that made him the No. 1 overall pick. But now comes the real test: a Broncos defense that has been suffocating opponents all year.
Denver enters this one at 12-2, riding an 11-game winning streak and fresh off a 34-26 win over the Packers that may have been their most complete showing of the season. They’ve got the AFC West in their grasp and are currently sitting atop the conference. A win on Sunday keeps them in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Broncos’ defense is the real deal-sixth in the league in EPA per play allowed-and it's not just one or two guys doing the heavy lifting. This is a unit with stars at every level.
Nik Bonitto has been a nightmare off the edge, and Patrick Surtain II continues to play like one of the best corners in football. When Denver’s defense is on the field, odds are they’ve got the two best players out there.
That’s what makes this matchup so compelling. Jacksonville’s offense has been rolling, but let’s be real-they haven’t exactly been running through a gauntlet of elite defenses.
Their last four wins came against the Cardinals, Titans, Colts, and Jets. The one standout performance?
A 35-6 dismantling of the Chargers. Solid wins, but Sunday presents a different kind of challenge.
Statistically, the Jags' offense still sits in the middle of the pack. They’re 15th in EPA per pass, 13th in EPA per rush, and 17th in rushing success rate.
Not bad, but not elite. And when you’re facing a defense like Denver’s, “not bad” might not cut it.
One major reason the Jaguars have taken a leap recently? The addition of Jakobi Meyers.
Acquired from the Raiders just before the trade deadline, Meyers has been a revelation. Since debuting in Week 10, he leads the team with 27 catches for 355 yards and has become Lawrence’s go-to guy in key moments.
He’s versatile, reliable, and gives Jacksonville a legitimate threat in the short-to-intermediate game.
It’ll be fascinating to see how Denver handles him. Surtain has shadowed top targets before-most recently against Brock Bowers-and he could follow Meyers around the field.
But the Jaguars like to move Meyers around, using motion and formation shifts to create mismatches. That chess match between Doug Pederson’s offensive design and Denver’s coverage schemes could be one of the keys to this game.
Of course, it’s not all on Lawrence and the passing game. Travis Etienne has quietly been finding his rhythm again, and Jacksonville will need him to be effective if they want to stay balanced. But that’s easier said than done against a Broncos front that’s been terrorizing quarterbacks all season.
Denver ranks second in the NFL with a 40.5% pressure rate. They’re not just getting home-they’re doing it consistently. Even in Week 15, when they started slow against the Packers, Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper flipped the switch in the second half and shut Green Bay down when it mattered most.
Jacksonville’s offensive line has done a respectable job protecting Lawrence-he’s been pressured on just over 30% of his dropbacks, one of the lowest rates in the league-but this week, they’ll be in for a serious stress test. The Broncos bring pressure from everywhere, and they don’t need to blitz to get home.
What’s interesting is how Lawrence responds to pressure. According to PFF, his average depth of target jumps from 8.5 yards when kept clean to a staggering 12.3 yards when pressured.
That’s not just a small uptick-that’s a quarterback who’s looking to take shots when the heat is on. It’s a bit of a high-risk, high-reward approach, but when you’ve got weapons like Brian Thomas Jr. on the outside and Meyers working underneath, it can work.
Thomas has the kind of speed and size that can flip a game with one play. He’s a vertical threat who demands safety help, and if Lawrence can buy enough time, he’ll take his chances downfield. In a game where consistent, methodical drives might be hard to come by, those explosive plays could be the difference.
So what’s at stake? For Denver, it’s about staying on top of the AFC and keeping that 1-seed in their sights.
For Jacksonville, it’s about proving they can hang with the conference’s elite and solidifying their grip on the AFC South. Both teams are hot.
Both quarterbacks are playing at a high level. And both defenses are going to have something to say about how this one unfolds.
This isn’t just a late-season game between two playoff teams-it’s a measuring stick. And by the time the final whistle blows, we might have a much clearer picture of who’s for real in the AFC.