It’s only October, and the AFC already feels like it’s sorting itself into tiers.
A few teams have looked the part, a few others have flashed enough to make people pay attention, and then there’s the weekly churn that comes with the NFL in September. With Week 4 on deck, the focus here is simple: the current division leaders in the AFC, ranked from the one with the most questions to the one looking the most complete.
- Pittsburgh Steelers, AFC North
The Steelers have a real shot to be 3-1 and sitting alone atop the AFC North by the end of Thursday night, which says something about where the division stands right now. Cleveland is standing in the way, and the Browns have quietly become a team nobody should shrug off.
Still, Pittsburgh is tough to pin down after three weeks. They don’t really look like a defensive identity team.
They don’t really look like an offensive identity team either. What they do look like is a squad that can rise and fall with the level of opponent in front of them, and that makes it hard to trust them as anything more than a moving target at this stage.
- Jacksonville Jaguars, AFC South
This was the hardest team to place. Putting Jacksonville third feels strange, but the AFC has been stacked enough early on that even a strong team can end up here.
The Jaguars have already taken care of the Browns and the Patriots, and there’s no shame in losing in Denver against the Broncos. That was a road trip into a tough environment, plain and simple.
What stands out is how cleanly this offense is running. Liam Coen has this group humming, Trevor Lawrence is steering it close to perfectly, and the weapons are getting fed all over the field.
After the blowout of New England, the Jaguars also showed they can shake off a loss and come back hard. They look like a real problem.
- Buffalo Bills, AFC East
Buffalo lands here, but this is really closer to a coin flip at the top than a true gap between the top two teams.
The Bills opened by hanging 30-plus points on Houston and putting up one of the biggest passing performances the Texans defense has seen. Then they followed that with a blowout of the Lions on a short week. That’s the kind of stretch that reminds everybody why this team sits near the top of the league conversation.
The Chargers game, though, is part of why they’re not No. 1 here. Five turnovers will drag any team down, even one as talented as Buffalo. Even so, this is still one of the best teams in football, AFC or otherwise.
- Kansas City Chiefs, AFC West
I wasn’t buying the offseason “Chiefs are back” talk. Not with the questions at offensive tackle, not with Patrick Mahomes returning from a major injury, and not with a defense that had been almost entirely overhauled. It looked like a team headed for a fight just to reach nine wins.
That take has aged badly.
Kansas City doesn’t just look like the old Chiefs. They might look better.
Kenneth Walker has been a massive addition, and the rushing attack has gone from the least explosive in the league for two straight seasons to the most explosive overnight. What were the Seahawks thinking letting Walker out the front door, again?
The results have backed up the eye test. Kansas City handled Denver in the Monday night opener, beat the Colts in overtime the next week, and took care of the Dolphins.
More than that, they’ve looked sharp doing it. Really sharp.
In Other News...
Brian Thomas Jr. Slump Just Created An Uncomfortable Jaguars Question
Brian Thomas Jr. has been part of the Jaguars long-term plan since arriving as a former first-round pick, but his recent production dip has invited outside curiosity in a way the team probably would rather avoid. NFL analyst Kristopher Knox recently floated the Steelers as a club that could benefit from adding Thomas to its passing game, a reminder that even young receivers with upside can become the subject of trade chatter when the numbers stop matching the pedigree.
For Jacksonville, the situation is less about any immediate intention to move him and more about how quickly a slump can turn into an uncomfortable question. The Jaguars have shown no interest in trading Thomas right now, but if his form keeps slipping, the conversation could get louder, especially with Pittsburgh already active at receiver this season after adding Michael Pittman Jr. and drafting Germie Bernard. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Rookies Are Forcing A Real Week 4 Depth Chart Shift
Through the first three weeks, the Jaguars rookie class has already started to leave a real imprint on the roster picture. Some first-year players, including Wesley Williams and Jalen Huskey, are still waiting for their first action, but others have forced their way into the conversation with meaningful reps on offense, defense and special teams. Bryan Thomas Jr. and Josh Cameron have been among the more noticeable contributors, giving Jacksonville something to think about as the season settles in.
Head coach Liam Coen also had to address the health of rookie Albert Regis, which adds another layer to a depth chart that is clearly still moving. For a team trying to find the right mix in the early part of the year, the rookie class is no longer just developmental background noise. The bigger question now is how much those performances will continue to push established options out of the way as Week 4 approaches. [Read more 🡒]
Jaguars Suddenly Have A Secondary Concern Before Bengals Showdown
A week after trying to settle into the rhythm of the season, Jacksonville suddenly has a secondary question hanging over its preparation for Cincinnati. The Jaguars Week 4 injury report shows three of their five cornerbacks were either injured or limited in practice, a reminder that a position group built on depth can get thin in a hurry when the practice report starts piling up.
Jarrian Jones was a full participant despite a hip issue, while Christian Braswell worked on a limited basis with a knee injury and Montaric Brown was also limited because of a hamstring problem. Jacksonville also had several other names on the report, including LeQuint Allen, DaVon Hamilton, Jakobi Meyers, Albert Regis and Cole Van Lanen, leaving the team with some moving parts to monitor as the Bengals game approaches and the coaching staff continues to sort out availability. [Read more 🡒]