College football fans have a habit of seeing one breakout first year and assuming that’s the new standard. Curt Cignetti’s 11-1 debut at Indiana lit that fuse again, and every new coach gets measured against it now, fair or not. Iowa State is stepping into that same spotlight with Jimmy Rogers, and the bar needs to be set with some real-world context.
Matt Campbell’s own run in Ames is the clearest reminder of how these things usually work. He arrived in 2016 after Iowa State had gone without a winning season since 2009, and his first team finished 3-9.
That start came with plenty of doubt attached. But the bigger picture is what matters now: Campbell eventually turned that job into one of the more successful stretches in school history, capped by a Fiesta Bowl win over Oregon and an 11-win season in his second-to-last year.
That history is exactly why year one for Rogers should be viewed through a patient lens.
The challenge in front of him is steep. Iowa State lost more than 50 players in the offseason after Campbell left for Penn State.
Rogers is installing a new offensive system, and his quarterback is about to make his Big 12 debut. He’s doing it with a roster he’s had months, not years, to shape.
Meanwhile, the rest of the conference isn’t waiting around for the Cyclones to catch up.
The transition shows up in the roster numbers, too. Iowa State’s returning production sits in the lower tier of Big 12 teams entering the season.
The offensive line is nearly rebuilt from scratch. The wide receiver group is still sorting out who fits where in the pecking order.
Those aren’t talking points; they’re the reality Rogers has inherited.
So what does a good first season look like?
A bowl game would count as real progress. Six wins gets Iowa State there.
Seven would be a strong first step. The chatter about eight wins or better may sound exciting, but that’s an optimistic read when you stack it against the amount of turnover this team is managing.
Indiana’s 2024 surge was special because it was unusual. Most Power Four program turnarounds don’t snap into place that fast.
They usually take two to three years before the coach’s system and recruiting classes really start to show up in the record. Campbell’s own early years at Iowa State are proof of that.
Rogers has the background and the staff to build something in Ames. In 2026, the sensible expectation is improvement, development and a trip to a bowl. Anything beyond that would be a bonus.
In Other News...
Iowa State Is Counting On One Unlikely Defensive Rise
Before Pete Menage even arrived in Ames, he had already circled Drew Surges as someone who could matter in the back end of the defense. That kind of early belief carries some weight for a former walk-on who worked his way onto scholarship and has steadily turned himself into one of the more respected names in the Cyclones secondary, with the chance now to push into a starting safety role.
Surges rise has not come without setbacks. Hamstring injuries slowed him in 2024, but he made it back late in the year and delivered a key interception in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, a timely reminder of why Iowa State views him as more than just depth. For a secondary that needs leadership as much as talent, his emergence gives the Cyclones a compelling answer in a spot where reliability matters. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa States 2027 Class Says A Lot About Otzelbergers Plan
Iowa States early work in the Class of 2027 is already offering a clear picture of where T.J. Otzelberger wants the program to keep heading. The Cyclones have landed three commits who all sit inside the top 57 nationally according to 247Sports, giving the staff a strong base before the recruiting cycle really starts to heat up. Josiah Harrington, Donovan Davis and Jack Kohnen each bring a different profile, and their summer-circuit performances have only added to the sense that this group fits the kind of physical, versatile basketball Iowa State has made its calling card.
What stands out is not just the talent level, but the spread of it. Each of the three has shown enough on the summer stage to suggest he can grow into a real piece of Otzelbergers system, and that matters for a program that has built its identity on evaluation and development as much as headline recruiting wins. The next question is how Iowa State turns this strong early start into the kind of class that matches the standard it has set, because the first three commitments suggest the staff has a specific plan in mind. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State Has A Crowded Battle For Key Roles Under Jimmy Rogers
Iowa States first offseason under Jimmy Rogers is already shaping up to be a sorting exercise, with a roster that looks far different from the one fans saw a year ago. The Cyclones are trying to build for 2026 around a wave of new faces, and in the middle of that reset are players such as Seth Johnson, Willich, Coffey, Jackson and Montreze Smith Jr., all of whom arrive with different backgrounds but the same basic assignment: earn trust fast and carve out a role.
What makes this group so interesting is not just the talent, but how many openings seem to be available at once. With players coming in from multiple collegiate programs and several spots still up for grabs, the early depth chart figures to be a live competition rather than a formality, and those battles for starting jobs and leadership could end up defining how quickly Rogers can put his stamp on the program. [Read more 🡒]