In two weeks, Iowa State will open a new chapter under Jimmy Rogers, and the first test comes against Southeast Missouri State at Jack Trice Stadium. The Cyclones are heading into a season shaped by massive roster turnover, a schedule that has its fair share of trouble spots, and preseason projections that have them near the bottom of the Big 12.
The personnel churn has been impossible to miss. Iowa State lost 55 players to the transfer portal in the winter, then brought in about 50 transfers of its own.
Fifteen arrived from Washington State, while roughly 25 more came from non-Power Conference programs. The Cyclones also saw close to 40 players leave for Power Conference schools, including 24 who ended up at Penn State with Matt Campbell.
That turnover has fueled a gloomy outside view of Iowa State’s outlook. The Cyclones are widely expected to finish near the bottom of the league, and their win total sits at 4.5, down from the 5.5 that FanDuel posted in mid-June.
"I am excited about the roster that we've assembled," Rogers said. "And I do believe that we're going to have the opportunity to go prove our truth."
The schedule, though, isn’t doing Iowa State any favors. The nonconference slate at home against SEMO and Bowling Green looks manageable, but the Cyclones also have to travel to Iowa and BYU, both preseason top 25 teams. On top of that, Utah and Arizona loom as projected Big 12 contenders.
By Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric, Iowa State enters the season at No. 69 overall, with the No. 96 offense, No. 47 defense and No. 27 special teams. SP+ projects the Cyclones to win 5.1 games against a schedule ranked No. 51 nationally.
The toughest game on the slate, according to SP+, is the Oct. 9 road trip to BYU. The Cougars are No. 21 in the preseason rankings, and they’ve been especially tough at night at home, going 26-7 in home night games over the last five seasons. Iowa State, though, has already spoiled one of those nights, beating BYU in 2023 in an After Dark game in late November.
The next-hardest assignment by SP+ is the trip to Iowa on Sept. 12.
That one kicks at 6:30 p.m. on NBC at Kinnick Stadium, and it will be only the fifth night game in the history of the Cy-Hawk rivalry. Since the start of the 2015 season, the series has had just one night kickoff, back in 2016.
The highest-ranked SP+ team visiting Ames is Utah, now under first-year coach Morgan Scalley. The Utes are No. 30 in SP+, with a top 30 offense and a top 45 defense.
Iowa State also hosts Oklahoma State, which checks in at No. 39.
Among Big 12 teams, only West Virginia has a more difficult schedule by SP+; the Mountaineers rank No. 44 in that category.
ESPN’s FPI paints a similar picture. Iowa State’s strength of schedule sits at No. 57 nationally, just behind BYU, one spot behind Notre Dame and five spots ahead of Penn State.
Once again, BYU and Iowa are the two biggest hurdles on the calendar, with Utah at No. 31 in FPI and Arizona at No. 34.
The Cyclones visit Arizona one week after the BYU game.
The back half of the schedule also brings a string of difficult opponents. Baylor is No. 37 in ESPN’s projected top 50, Kansas State is No. 41 and Cincinnati is No.
- Iowa State goes to Baylor on Nov. 7, while Cincinnati and Kansas State both come to Jack Trice Stadium in two of the final three weekends.
SEMO and Bowling Green are the softest spots on the slate, but the lowest-ranked Power Conference opponent is West Virginia at No. 66 in FPI. The Mountaineers visit Mid-American Energy Field on Oct. 3 in what shapes up as a key game.
Phil Steele’s preseason magazine has Iowa State’s strength of schedule at No. 56, using his own algorithm. In that ranking, Arizona State, TCU, Cincinnati, Colorado, West Virginia, BYU, Oklahoma State and Kansas all have tougher slates than the Cyclones.
In Other News...
Iowa States Defensive Reset Now Hinges On One New Arrival
Iowa States defensive makeover took another important step when Jimmy Rogers brought Isaac Terrell over from Washington State as part of the programs post-Matt Campbell reset. With Campbell gone for Penn State and much of the old staff and roster following, the Cyclones have been left to rebuild quickly, and Terrell has already been handed a prominent place in that effort. He has been named a team captain and also landed on the Chuck Bednarik Award watch list, a sign that the new staff views him as one of the most important pieces on the defense.
For a team trying to settle into a new identity, that kind of early trust matters. Terrell is expected to play a major role for Iowa State this season, not just because of his background under Rogers at Washington State, but because the Cyclones need someone to anchor the front while the broader transition takes shape. The question now is how quickly that leadership translates once the games start, and whether his arrival can help set the tone for a defense still finding its footing. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State Suddenly Has A Major Backcourt Question To Open The Season
Iowa State opened the week with an early backcourt concern after sophomore point guard Killyan Toure had surgery Aug. 21 to repair a right shoulder injury he sustained at Damian Lillards Formula Zero Elite Camp. Toure was viewed as an important part of the program and a player expected to have a key role in the 2026-27 season, so his absence changes the picture for a team that was already trying to settle its rotation heading into the new year.
T.J. Otzelberger said the expectation is for Toure to return in January, with the Big 12 schedule the target. In the meantime, Iowa State may have to lean on Jaquan Johnson to handle that role during the non-conference portion of the season, leaving the Cyclones with a notable test in the backcourt before the league grind even begins. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa States Rebuilt Offense Is Suddenly Riding On Aiden Flora
After Matt Campbell left for Penn State and a wave of players followed him out, Iowa States offseason could have turned into a full-blown reset. Instead, one of the quieter decisions on the roster may end up shaping the direction of the rebuilt offense: Aiden Flora stayed put, and now the former walk-on is listed as the starting running back heading into the 2026 season under new coach Jimmy Rogers.
Flora was far from a proven headliner before this opportunity, but he beat out transfer Cameron Pettaway and landed in a backfield that figures to be central to Tyler Roehls run-heavy approach. For Iowa State, it is the sort of development that speaks to both continuity and uncertainty, with a player who once had limited carries now sitting at the heart of how the Cyclones plan to move the ball. [Read more 🡒]