Iowa State is heading into the 2026 college football season with a fresh look and plenty of curiosity around the program, but the path to the Big 12 Championship still looks steep.
The Cyclones have reached the conference title game twice under Matt Campbell in his 10-year run: in 2020, when they lost to the Oklahoma Sooners, and in 2024, when they fell to the Arizona State Sun Devils. Iowa State is still looking for its first Big 12 championship.
Now the program is in the hands of first-year head coach Jimmy Rogers, and the goal is to get back to that stage in 2026. The problem is that a trip to the championship game looks extremely unlikely.
Iowa State was picked last in the preseason media poll, sitting 16th out of 16. That kind of starting point makes a jump into the top two feel like a long shot, especially in a conference with several teams that already appear positioned well above the Cyclones.
Texas Tech is ranked 12th in the preseason AP Top 25 and brings back a strong group of returners. BYU is ranked 15th and has a rushing attack that can wear defenses down. Utah comes in at 21st with an elite run game, and Houston is 23rd with Connor Weigman and Amare Thomas forming a quarterback-wide receiver pairing that gives the Cougars real firepower.
For Iowa State to make the Big 12 title game, it would likely need to finish ahead of at least three of those teams, and that does not look like the most realistic outcome.
The broader expectation around the Cyclones is modest as well. Most projections have them around four wins, and the outlook in this case is 5-7, which would leave them just short of bowl eligibility. That kind of forecast makes a conference championship run even harder to imagine.
Still, the Big 12 has a habit of throwing curveballs. Arizona State was projected to finish last in the league in 2024 and ended up making the championship game before winning it. That kind of volatility is always part of the equation in this conference.
Iowa State will need a lot to break right from players like Jaylen Raynor, Aiden Flora, Omari Hayes, Tyler Fortenberry, Issac Terrell, Caden Crawford, Kyle Konrardy, and others. If everything clicks, the Cyclones could put together a strong season.
But even with that possibility on the table, it’s fair to say Iowa State is not expected to be in the Big 12 Championship this year.
In Other News...
Iowa State Fans Just Got Reassurance About What Still Matters Most
Even with a new coach in place, some Iowa State football traditions are clearly staying put. Victory Day, the annual event at Jack Trice Stadium that brings players together with special needs youth for a morning of football, connection and joy, will continue on Aug. 27 under Jimmy Rogers. The event began during Matt Campbells tenure, and it has become one of the programs most meaningful touches beyond the field, with activities that let the kids play catch, score touchdowns and share the moment with the team.
The continuity does not stop there, either. Iowa State also plans to keep honoring the Nick Bassett Award and remembering former assistant Curtis Bray, signaling that the programs standards are not being reset just because the leadership changed. In a sport where coaching transitions can quickly reshape the feel of a roster and a locker room, those decisions matter to fans who want reassurance that the heart of the program still looks familiar. [Read more 🡒]