Iowa State’s season has turned into one of those quiet surprises that keeps getting louder.
The Cyclones sit at 4-4 after a year that started with major turnover and a risky coaching hire in Jimmy Rogers, a move plenty of people questioned at the time. Eight games in, it looks a lot smarter than it did in the offseason.
Iowa State has picked up wins over Southeast Missouri State, Bowling Green, West Virginia and, most recently, Oklahoma State. The four losses have all come against ranked teams: Iowa, Utah, BYU and Arizona. That’s why there’s a real argument that this is the best 4-4 team in the country, especially with a top-25 win on the résumé and no bad losses on it.
Now the Cyclones are staring at the finish line, and it’s simple: they need two more wins to get to a bowl game.
The path starts next Saturday on the road against Baylor. The Bears didn’t get off to a strong start, but they’ve been rolling lately and have, as the source puts it, truly unlocked quarterback DJ Lagway. ESPN analytics gives Baylor an 81.2% chance to win, so Iowa State is walking into the toughest test left on the schedule right away.
After that, the Cyclones come home for Cincinnati, and that one looks far more manageable. The Bearcats have been up and down all season, which makes this a true coin flip. ESPN has Cincinnati winning 50.3% of the time, leaving Iowa State right there in the mix.
Then comes another road trip, this time to UCF. The Knights have been one of the season’s hardest teams to figure out.
They beat then No. 2 BYU two weeks ago, then followed that with a 32-point loss to Baylor.
ESPN still gives UCF a 61.9% chance to win, so that one leans against the Cyclones, but not by a huge margin.
The regular season closes at home against Kansas State. The Wildcats started strong, but their last few weeks have been rough, and they’re also sitting at 4-4. ESPN has that game just barely in Kansas State’s favor, giving the Wildcats a 51.5% chance to win.
That leaves Iowa State with four games that are all very much in play, and three that could easily tilt its way depending on how the week unfolds. For a team that entered the season in a completely different place, reaching a bowl game would be a major accomplishment. Right now, the Cyclones look like they’re on track to get there.
In Other News...
Iowa State Just Faced A Bigger Problem Than One Opening Loss
Iowa States season opened with more than a frustrating 80-76 loss to Memphis at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls. The Cyclones were beaten in the areas that usually travel best for a T.J. Otzelberger team, with Memphis getting the edge in steals, free throws and three-point shooting, leaving Iowa State to sort through the kind of early-game issues that can linger if they are not corrected quickly.
Otzelberger pointed to the need for more defensive pride and commitment moving forward, a message that carries extra weight after a game like this. For a team that expects to defend at a high level and control the terms of play, the opener was a reminder that the bigger concern is not just the loss itself, but whether the response shows up fast enough. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa States New Transfer Could Force A Tough Minutes Battle
Iowa State added a proven perimeter piece in Mya Babbitt, a 5-8 guard who arrives after three seasons at Kent State and brings a track record of stretching the floor. Her sophomore year stood out in particular, when she set a program record with 83 made three-pointers and shot 41.5% from beyond the arc, the kind of production that can change how defenses have to guard a lineup.
For the Cyclones, the appeal goes beyond the shooting. Babbitt is expected to help as both a perimeter threat and a defensive presence, which gives the staff another useful option when the game calls for spacing or extra pressure on the ball. The bigger question is how often she gets on the floor, since her role figures to shift depending on matchups and game flow, creating a deeper competition for minutes on a roster that already has plenty of moving parts. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State's Depth Just Sent An Intriguing Early Message
Iowa State wasted little time showing what its rotation can look like this season, rolling past Grambling 90-61 in its regular-season opener at Hilton Coliseum. The Cyclones set the tone early with scoring in the paint and steady production from the bench, while Tjaa Turnek led the way with 19 points and Xiao Zhang added an efficient 13.
The bigger takeaway for Iowa State was how thoroughly it controlled the game on the glass and on the defensive end. The Cyclones finished with a 61-34 rebounding edge and held Grambling to 29.2% shooting overall, the kind of opening-night performance that suggests there may be more than one reliable answer waiting in the lineup as the schedule gets tougher. [Read more 🡒]