Iowa State’s preseason outlook just got a whole lot brighter, and the reason starts at the top of the floor.
With Tamin Lipsey back for a fifth season, the Cyclones are landing at No. 6 in KenPom’s preseason projections, carrying a Net Rating of +28.68. That kind of placement would be eye-opening on its own. What makes it even more striking is where it leaves Iowa State in the Big 12: only third behind Houston and Arizona.
Houston checks in at No. 3 with a +31.66 Net Rating, while Arizona sits at No. 5 with a +29.73. Ahead of Iowa State in the national forecast are just Duke (+34.42), Florida (+33.38) and Illinois (+29.86).
The numbers line up with the identity T.J. Otzelberger has built in Ames.
Since taking over a program that had gone 2-22, he has guided the Cyclones to the NCAA tournament in all five of his seasons. Year after year, he’s found players who fit the way Iowa State wants to play, and that has given the program a sturdy foundation.
This season looked like it might require some retooling. Iowa State had to replace a heavy chunk of production and leadership with Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson, Milan Momcilovic and Nate Heise all moving on. On top of that, rising star Killyan Toure suffered a shoulder injury that will keep him out until mid-January.
But Lipsey’s decision to return changes the whole picture. One of the best two-way point guards in the country last season, he brings production, control and leadership on both ends of the court. His presence also helps Iowa State absorb the blow of losing Toure for the first part of the year.
KenPom’s numbers reflect just how strong the Cyclones could be on the defensive end. Iowa State is projected to have the No. 2 defense in the nation at 90.2, trailing only Houston’s 87.6. The offense is slotted at No. 23 with a rating of 118.8.
Otzelberger also used the transfer portal to patch specific holes. Jaquan Johnson, the reigning Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year, gives the backcourt another disruptive defender.
Tre Singleton is in line to help replace Jefferson at power forward. Taj Manning adds toughness and rebounding up front.
Ryan Prather Jr. gives Iowa State a steady ball-handler with scoring upside as a possible sixth man. Leon Bond III is set to slide into Heise’s role as a versatile two-way wing.
There is still plenty of continuity here, too. Lipsey, Jamarion Bateman, Blake Buchanan and Dominykas Pleta are back, and Toure will eventually return as well. That kind of overlap should make it easier for the new faces to settle in.
Put it all together, and Iowa State looks deep, flexible and built for different kinds of games. That gives the Cyclones a real chance to make a long run when March arrives.
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