Iowa State’s upset of once-ranked Oklahoma State did more than knock the Cowboys out of Big 12 championship-game contention. It gave the Cyclones a fresh jolt at a moment when the fan base had every reason to wonder where this season was headed after the previous two losses came by a combined 50 points.
And the real question now is whether that Halloween-night win was just a flash, or the start of something sturdier.
Because in today’s college football, the future is never just about the scoreboard. It’s about who stays, who leaves, and whether a roster can hold together long enough to turn one good night into a real foundation.
Iowa State’s situation looks encouraging, with the usual asterisk that hangs over every power-conference program. Year-to-year success can hinge on how many players return and how many decide better opportunities are waiting somewhere else.
That uncertainty is the sport’s Great Unknown. It’s also why “recruiting starts at home” means something different now.
It’s not only about keeping in-state talent from wandering off. It’s about keeping the players you already know can help you win.
Against Oklahoma State, Iowa State’s 22 offensive and defensive starters included 15 with eligibility remaining. That group included quarterback Jaylen Raynor, running back Aiden Flora, true freshman electric receiver Jamal Polite, linebacker Sullivan Schlimgen and place-kicker Kyle Konrardy.
Not long ago, that kind of returning production would have been an obvious reason for optimism. Now it comes with a different kind of tension, because NIL money and the transfer portal have changed the conversation.
You don’t just ask who’s coming back. You wonder who’s going to test the market.
That’s why Saturday at Baylor matters, too. It could offer another look at whether this group really can become the base of Iowa State’s future.
The bigger answer won’t arrive until the portal opens again Jan. 4.
For now, though, the postseason is suddenly back in play. Some people around the state are already thinking about the College Football Playoff, while others are simply looking at bowl destinations. After the Oklahoma State upset, even that feels realistic again.
Iowa State is 4-4 with Baylor, Cincinnati, UCF and Kansas State still ahead. A return to the postseason would mean the program’s first bowl game since beating current top-ranked Miami of Florida in the 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando.
And with the way bowl eligibility works now, the Cyclones don’t even need to get to six wins to keep that door open. Five can be enough.
That makes the math simple. Win one of the last four, and a lower-tier bowl could be waiting.
That would also make for a pretty good television story. A roster with 83 new faces, plus a new coaching staff, a new university president and a new AD, would be the kind of thing the national audience can latch onto. And Iowa State fans travel, which only adds to the appeal.
Possible destinations? The Independence Bowl, where Iowa State played Miami of Ohio in 2004.
The Cactus Bowl in Tempe. Memphis for the Liberty Bowl.
Any of those would do.
For a team that looked stuck in the college football tundra after back-to-back blowouts against Top 25 opponents, the Oklahoma State game changed the mood fast. The message now is straightforward: keep the trick plays coming, keep Raynor playing like the quarterback Iowa State expected, keep feeding those young receivers, and keep Flora and Konrardy healthy.
At 4-4, the postseason is still there.
RAND-O: Thinking out loud
** After what game this weekend will Big 12 officials be reprimanded? It seems to be a recurring situation.
** Rogers can become the second coach since the 1930s to win at least five games in his first Iowa State season. Paul Rhoads was the most recent, with a 7-6 record in 2009.
Who did it before Rhoads? George Veenker, of course, with a 5-3 record in 1931.
** Concerned about Iowa State’s men’s basketball loss against Memphis? Nah.
All will be well again once this team masters the hard-core defense T.J. Otzelberger’s teams play - and when long shots and free throws start falling.
** Big 12 weekend football guesses (for entertainment purposes only): Arizona beats TCU on Friday, and on Saturday - Iowa State wins at Baylor, Utah wins at home against BYU, Oklahoma State beats Kansas State, Houston beats Cincinnati, UCF beats Kansas, Arizona State beats Colorado and Texas Tech beats West Virginia.
** At least one more Big 12 coach will be fired during or after the season.
In Other News...
Iowa State's Bowl Push Comes Down To A Defining Final Stretch
Iowa State has put itself in position to make the late-season conversation matter, sitting at 4-4 after collecting wins over Southeast Missouri State, Bowling Green, West Virginia and Oklahoma State while taking its losses against ranked opponents. The Cyclones are still two victories shy of bowl eligibility, which means the next month will decide whether this season becomes a step forward or just a near miss.
Baylor, Cincinnati, UCF and Kansas State now make up the final stretch, and ESPN analytics give each matchup its own level of difficulty. For Iowa State, the path is clear enough in theory but still demanding in practice, with every remaining game carrying real weight as the Cyclones try to turn a solid start into a postseason berth. [Read more 🡒]
Arizona Already Has An Opening Night Debate Fans Wont Ignore
The Big 12 wasted no time reminding everyone why it is going to be a nightly grind, opening the season with 15 of 16 teams in action and finishing the first wave at 13-2. There were plenty of eye-catching performances mixed in with the usual early-season turbulence, from Baylors Rob Wright going for 33 points in a win over Ohio State to UCFs Dior Johnson pouring in 41 in a narrow escape against Florida Gulf Coast.
Arizonas opener may have generated the loudest conversation, though, after Ivan Kharchenkov scored 38 points in a near comeback against UCLA. For Iowa State fans, the bigger takeaway is how quickly the leagues margin for error disappeared after the Cyclones unexpected loss to Memphis, and how little room there is for anyone to settle in before the Big 12 race starts stacking up results that will matter later. [Read more 🡒]
Bill Fennellys Final Ride Opened With A Moment Cyclones Fans Will Feel
Before Iowa State tipped off its season-opening win over Grambling State, Bill Fennelly got a gesture that fit the moment. Courtney Simmons, the Grambling head coach, sent over a handwritten note for Fennelly, who is in his 32nd and final season leading the Cyclones. It was the kind of small, personal acknowledgment that carries extra weight in a sport where coaching trees and relationships run deep.
The Cyclones then handled business on the floor with a 90-61 victory, getting solid contributions from Mya Babbitt, Tjasa Turnsek, Xiao Zhang and Gift Ezekiel. But the note lingered after the game because it spoke to something bigger than one opener. Fennelly said it meant a lot to be recognized for the impact he has had on womens basketball, a fitting start to a farewell season that figures to be watched closely in Ames and beyond. [Read more 🡒]