AMES - If Iowa State is going to handle Cincinnati on Saturday morning, the Cyclones probably need to lean into the same formula that has carried them all season: feed Aiden Flora, stay sharp in the red zone and win enough of the hidden battles to tilt a game that looks tight on paper.
That starts with Flora, who has become the Big 12’s most productive runner. The former walk-on leads the conference in rushing yards with 1,119 and is averaging 124.3 yards per game. He’s already put together four games of at least 182 rushing yards, including a 212-yard outing in Iowa State’s 45-42 win over West Virginia.
“He’s fast,” said ISU head coach Jimmy Rogers, whose team is a three-point favorite against the Bearcats. “Some of those (Baylor) corners that he was turning (in last week’s 42-31 loss in Waco), I thought they all had angles on him. He just runs right by them.”
Cincinnati’s defense gives Iowa State a chance to keep that ground game rolling. The Bearcats are one of only three Big 12 teams allowing more rushing yards per game than the Cyclones, and the matchup brings another star back into focus on the other side: Cincinnati’s Cole Tabb.
He’s averaging 8.9 yards per carry and was listed as probable on the Bearcats’ initial injury report. Iowa State’s run defense sits just ahead of Cincinnati’s, giving up 163.1 rushing yards per game, so both backs figure to draw plenty of attention.
One area where Iowa State has been efficient all season is the red zone, at least in one sense. The Cyclones are perfect on red-zone conversions, scoring on all 25 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
But the bigger issue is volume and finishing with touchdowns. ISU is tied with Colorado for last in the Big 12 in red-zone trips, and its 16 touchdowns in those chances rank second-to-last in the league.
That means Saturday is about more than simply getting close; it’s about turning those drives into sevens instead of settling for Kyle Konrardy field goals.
Cincinnati has been better at cashing in once it gets inside the 20, converting points on 80 percent of its red-zone possessions and scoring 12 more touchdowns in those situations than Iowa State. That gap makes the Cyclones’ margin for error pretty thin.
Third down could decide even more. The Bearcats have been converting 47 percent or more of their third-down chances against every Big 12 opponent they’ve faced, while Iowa State ranks 15th in the conference at 35 percent.
That puts even more pressure on the Cyclones to stay ahead of the chains on first and second down. And if things get to fourth-and-short, Cincinnati has shown more bite there too, converting nine fourth downs to Iowa State’s seven.
The trenches have been a mixed bag for both teams. Each has allowed 18 sacks, though Iowa State’s pass protection remains a concern after giving up two sacks in last week’s loss at Baylor.
On the flip side, the Cyclones have only 12 sacks this season, which leaves them last in the Big 12 in that category. If Iowa State wants to improve to 5-1 at Jack Trice Stadium, it needs a cleaner afternoon up front on both sides of the ball.
Cincinnati comes in with one of the nation’s better rushing attacks, and quarterback JC French IV has been efficient, throwing 15 touchdowns against three interceptions. Iowa State’s defense has struggled in Big 12 play, but last week’s loss at Baylor offered at least a small sign of life even while the Cyclones gave up 42 points.
The call here is that Iowa State does enough offensively to get it done. Flora should have another big day, and quarterback Jaylen Raynor will keep his late-season surge going.
In Other News...
Iowa State Freshman Just Gave Cyclones Fans A Real Reason For Excitement
Iowa States 77-55 win over Howard offered an early look at what could become a useful formula for the Cyclones this season: balanced scoring, active rebounding and a freshman who looked ready for a bigger role right away. Tjaa Turnek led the way with 20 points, 12 rebounds and five assists, giving Iowa State a steady presence on both ends while Mya Babbitt and Alex-Anne Bessette added 16 and 15 points to keep the offense moving.
For a team still sorting out its identity, that kind of production from a newcomer matters. Turnek did more than fill the box score, and the way she fit alongside Babbitt and Bessette gave Iowa State a glimpse of a rotation that can stretch defenses and create problems in different ways. The bigger question now is how quickly that early promise turns into something the Cyclones can count on once the schedule gets tougher. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State's New-Look Roster Is Starting To Feel Very Real
A fresh Iowa State roster is beginning to look a lot more settled, and the latest glimpse came in a convincing 77-55 win over Howard. Freshman forward Tjasa Turnsek delivered the kind of inside presence the Cyclones have been looking for, finishing with 20 points and 12 rebounds for her second double-double of the season, while the lineup around her kept showing signs of becoming a real rotation rather than a collection of new faces.
Bill Fennellys final season has put a spotlight on how quickly this group can come together, and the early returns are encouraging. Transfers Alex-Anne Bessette, Sienna Harvey and Mya Babbitt all helped shape a strong team effort, and Iowa States discipline showed up at the defensive end, where Howard was held to 28.1 percent shooting. The pieces are there now, and the bigger question is how far this new-look group can go once the schedule stiffens. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State Suddenly Has A New Offensive Pressure Point Against Cincinnati
Injuries have pushed Iowa State into a different look at receiver, and the results have given the offense a needed jolt. Cameron Pettaway and Jamal Polite Jr. have stepped into bigger roles in recent games, helping a group that has had to adjust on the fly while quarterback Jaylen Raynor has started to settle in more comfortably.
Raynors improved play over the past two games has come with more dependable help around him, and that has changed the feel of the passing game heading into Cincinnati. The Cyclones will try to carry that momentum forward, but the real test is whether this reshuffled receiver room can keep creating the same pressure point when defenses have more time to prepare for it. [Read more 🡒]