Iowa State heads to Provo with a problem it has not fully solved yet: what happens when the Cyclones run into a defense that can actually slow them down?
That question hangs over Friday night’s road trip to face No. 8 BYU under the lights.
It is the third ranked opponent Iowa State has seen this season, after road games against Iowa in the Cy-Hawk rivalry and Utah at Jack Trice Stadium. Those two matchups produced the Cyclones’ losses, but they also showed plenty of fight from a team that did not wilt when the opponent was supposed to be better.
BYU presents another version of that same challenge, only with a defense that has been far more consistent. Through Oct. 4, the Cougars were No. 13 in SP+ on that side of the ball with a 16.2 rating. They have allowed just 14.2 points per game and have been especially difficult to run against, giving up only 75 rushing yards per game at 2.7 yards per carry.
That is where Iowa State’s offensive splits become impossible to ignore. As Bill Connelly of ESPN pointed out, the Cyclones have looked like one team against soft defenses and a very different one against elite units. In three games against defenses ranked 107th or worse in SP+, Iowa State has rolled to 46 points per game, 7.4 yards per play and a 46.8% success rate.
Against top-20 defenses, though, the production has fallen off hard. In two such games, the Cyclones have averaged just 15 points per game, 4.5 yards per play and a 34.1% success rate.
That split puts extra pressure on Aiden Flora, who has been one of Iowa State’s emerging stars on the ground. Flora has averaged 11 yards per carry against those weaker defenses, but only 4.5 yards per carry against top-20 opponents. That latter number is still solid, but getting even that much against BYU’s front will be a tall order.
If Iowa State is going to pull the upset, Tyler Roel and the offense have to do more than they did in those earlier games against strong defenses. The Cyclones will also need Jaylen Ranyor to keep building on his improved work through the air, because that may be the cleanest way to take some of the heat off the run game.
In Other News...
Iowa State's Upset Chance Just Got More Real Against BYU
BYUs trip to face Iowa State took on a different feel once the Cougars learned theyll be without top rusher LJ Martin, who is expected to miss about a month with a lower-body injury. The No. 8 team in the AP poll still brings plenty of talent into the matchup, but losing a key back changes the shape of a game plan that was already headed toward a tricky test against a Cyclones team trying to keep its momentum rolling under first-year coach Jimmy Rogers.
Iowa State is coming off a high-scoring win, though the defense still has issues to sort through, and the timing of this one adds another layer. The Cyclones will play their first true road game outside Iowa on a short week, which is never an easy ask, but a BYU offense missing one of its most important pieces gives Iowa State a more realistic path to springing the upset it needs to stay in the thick of the season. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State's Surprising Start Suddenly Puts Bowl Hopes In Play
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Now the conversation has shifted from simply finding answers to chasing seven wins and a bowl berth. The road there is still uncertain, but with upcoming games still to play, Iowa State has at least put itself in position to make the second half matter in a way few outside the program would have predicted before the season began. [Read more 🡒]
Houston Faces A Huge Big 12 Test With Early Stakes Already Rising
Saturdays Big 12 slate is packed with games that already feel bigger than a typical early-October weekend, and Iowa States trip to BYU sits near the top of that list for good reason. The Cyclones are part of a conference race that has tightened quickly, and this one pairs two teams with enough momentum and intrigue to make it one of the most compelling matchups on the board, even with attention also spread across Houston at Kansas State, Arizona at West Virginia and the rest of the leagues Week 6 schedule.
For Iowa State, the appeal goes beyond just another road test. BYU has been one of the more interesting early stories in the Big 12 picture, and the Cyclones are walking into a game that could shape how both teams are viewed in the league pecking order. With Kansas at Utah, UCF at Oklahoma State and Hawaii at Arizona State also in the mix, this weekend offers a clear snapshot of where the conference stands, and Iowa State-BYU feels like one of the clearest chances for the standings to get an early jolt. [Read more 🡒]