Iowa State gets its Big 12 opening test on Saturday with No. 15 Utah coming to Ames, and the matchup already has the feel of a grinder.
The Utes arrive 3-0 with wins over Idaho, Arkansas, and Utah State, and they’ve given up just 24 points across those three games. That’s the backdrop for a week of staff picks that mostly circle the same idea: this could be ugly, physical, and decided by a few key plays.
Chris Williams sees Utah as “the first or second best team in the conference” and thinks Iowa State is capable of hanging around if it creates turnovers, gets a special teams score, or sees the offense do more than it has so far. He also pointed to the weather as a factor, but still leaned Utah in a tight one, 20-17.
Jake Brend flipped his preseason Utah pick and changed course, backing Iowa State in part because of “Jimmy Rogers has a 24-1 record at home as a head coach.” He also cited respect for Utah, Morgan Scalley’s rise, and the Utes’ speed, physicality, and experience.
Still, he believes the rain and natural grass could blunt Utah enough for Iowa State to drag the game into the fourth quarter and win it there. His pick: Iowa State 20, Utah 17.
Rob Gray expects the Utes’ two-quarterback system to test Iowa State’s aggressive defense, but he also thinks the wet conditions will limit the explosive plays both teams want. He called for a trench battle and even suggested the under “barely,” while noting Utah ranks in the top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense. His prediction has Utah getting enough big moments to win as an 8.5-point favorite, 27-21.
Jackson Pence likes the setup for Iowa State’s defense and said the Cyclones already passed their first test against Iowa with “flying colors.” He thinks the muddy conditions could make Iowa State one-dimensional, but believes OC Tyler Roehl will “activates” or “unleashes” Jaylen Raynor in the run game.
He also expects Dominic Overby or Omari Hayes to hit a big play early, and he’s taking Iowa State on a late Kyle Konrardy field goal. “How bout them Cyclones!”
he wrote, with Iowa State winning 17-14.
Jacqueline Cordova called Utah’s first trip to Ames as a Big 12 member “Everyone’s favorite new era Big 12 member,” then immediately acknowledged the obvious problem: the Utes are very good. She thinks Jack Trice and the Iowa State defense can make things uncomfortable, but “Against my will though, I’m taking Utah.” Her final: Utah 27, Iowa State 17.
Derek Duke pointed to the 2:30 p.m. FOX kickoff and the white out atmosphere as part of what makes the day feel big, though he admitted some nerves about the Cyclones.
He called Utah a “legitimate Big 12 title contender” with Devon Dampier at quarterback and plenty around him, while also crediting the defense under Morgan Scalley. With rain in the forecast, he expects a low-scoring game and thinks Iowa State can keep it close, but not close enough.
He took Utah 24-17.
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Braden Smiths move to center gives Iowa State one of the more interesting subplots heading into the Big 12 opener, and it says plenty about how much this front is still being shaped. Smith has spent parts of his college career on the defensive line and at tight end, and now he is being asked to anchor the offensive line in a new role as the Cyclones prepare for the kind of early conference test that can reveal a lot about a rebuilt group.
Utah is a fitting first measuring stick. Jimmy Rogers has already pointed to the strength of the Utes defense, which should put immediate pressure on Smith and the rest of Iowa States line to communicate, adjust and hold up against a disciplined opponent. For the Cyclones, it is also part of a bigger picture: a diverse roster coming together under Rogers, with the opener offering an early glimpse at how far that process has come. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State Faces Its First Real Big 12 Test In Utah Defense
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Much of the attention will fall on four Utah defenders who have helped set that tone: Nate Ritchie, Jonathan Hall, Lance Holtzclaw and Elijah Davis. Each brings a different piece to the picture, from pressure up front to cleanup work in the secondary, and how Iowa State handles that group will say a lot about whether the Cyclones can make a clean first impression in league play. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State Offense Faces A Brutal Big 12 Test Against Utah
Utah is rolling into Big 12 play with real momentum, and Iowa State is the team asked to deal with it first. The Utes are 3-0 after back-to-back wins by a combined 76-10, and quarterback Devon Dampier has been the engine behind that start, completing 71.6% of his passes for 690 yards with seven touchdowns and just one interception while adding production on the ground.
For Iowa State, the timing makes this a tricky early conference test. The Cyclones are 2-1, but there have been some concerns about their recent offensive performance, and now they are lining up against a Utah defense backed by a quarterback who has been efficient, explosive and hard to slow down. It is the kind of matchup that can sharpen a team quickly, or expose exactly how much work still needs to be done. [Read more 🡒]