Iowa State enters the first Saturday in October with a lot still on the table, and the numbers say the path ahead is going to be a grind.
The Cyclones are 2-2 overall and 0-1 in Big 12 play after wins over SEMO and Bowling Green, a close defeat at No. 21 Iowa and a more lopsided loss to No.
15 Utah. Next up is West Virginia at 11:00 a.m.
CT on TNT, and that matchup comes before another ranked opponent shows up in Week 6.
ESPN’s latest FPI projections give Iowa State a 62.3% chance against West Virginia, followed by tougher calls the rest of the way: 15.4% at No. 10 BYU, 36% at Arizona, 48% against Oklahoma State, 31.4% at Baylor, 47.8% against Cincinnati, 33.5% at UCF and 39% against Kansas State. If those odds hold, Jimmy Rogers’ first Cyclone team would finish 3-9.
The broader analytical picture isn’t much kinder. Iowa State sits No. 58 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, with the nation’s No. 86 offense, No. 39 defense and No. 18 special teams.
The 14-point loss to Utah pushed the Cyclones down six spots. West Virginia is the only team in SP+ rated below Iowa State.
Before Saturday arrives, the Cyclones will also spend Tuesday in media-day mode inside the Stark Performance Center. Rogers and offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl are both set to meet with reporters, and Iowa State’s communication staff has also lined up Max Baloun, Willie Breland, Dominic Overby and Caden Maas for interviews with local media.
Roehl’s session should draw plenty of attention, especially with Iowa State still working to fix its third-down issues. The Cyclones are No. 15 in the Big 12 in third-down conversion rate this season.
Cyclone Alert will have full coverage of those availability sessions, with videos posted to the Cyclone Alert YouTube channel and written updates on the website.
All of that lands during homecoming week in Ames, with Saturday’s game against West Virginia serving as the centerpiece for Cyclone graduates and current students alike. The week’s schedule includes campus food opportunities on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. for those with the 2026 homecoming button, plus Greek organization tournaments Tuesday night and the Yell like Hell Second Cuts on Wednesday at 6 p.m.
Thursday brings David Cook’s formal installation as Iowa State University’s 17th president at 9:30 a.m. in Stephens Auditorium, along with the final round of tournament championships and another Central Campus lunch.
Friday is packed from start to finish: Honors & Awards at 1:00 p.m. in Stephens Auditorium, the Tearoom Celebration at the Joan Bice Underwood Tearoom, the Homecoming Pep Rally at 5:00 p.m. in the Alumni Center, the Greek Alumni Reunion at 5:30 p.m., the 46th annual Alumni Band reunion, ExCytement in the Streets at 8:00 p.m. in Greek Triangle and Homecoming Comedy Night with Nate Jackson at Memorial Union at 10 p.m. Doors open at 9:30 p.m. CT, and the show is free to Iowa State students and their guests exclusively.
In Other News...
Tamin Lipsey Just Changed Iowa States Entire Starting Five Outlook
Tamin Lipseys path back to Ames finally cleared, and the timing matters for a Cyclones team that already had a crowded summer of roster sorting to do. The Indiana court ruling gives Iowa State one of its most important pieces back for a fifth season, and it immediately changes how the lineup can be built around him. What had been a projected backcourt puzzle now has a steadier anchor, which in turn affects how the staff can sort through transfers and returning players for the rest of the starting five.
Lipseys return does more than keep an experienced guard on the floor. It reshapes the roles around him, from who handles the ball to how much pressure the new faces will have to absorb right away. For Iowa State, the bigger question is no longer whether he fits into the rotation, but how his presence redirects the entire opening-night lineup and which players emerge in the spots still up for grabs. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State Already Has Three Reasons To Feel Better About This Team
Iowa State has spent the first month of the season leaving the impression of a team that is better than its record shows. At 2-2, the Cyclones have already banked wins over Southeast Missouri State and Bowling Green, and they have also hung tough in close losses to ranked Iowa and Utah. What stands out most is not just the competitiveness, but the way this team is winning its moments in the areas that usually travel well from week to week.
The run game, run defense and special teams have all given Iowa State reasons to feel good about where it is headed. Aiden Flora, Cameron Pettaway, Arnold Barnes III and Kyle Konrardy have each shown up in ways that reinforce that broader picture, giving the Cyclones useful pieces on both sides of the ball and on the kicking game. For a team still trying to sort out its early-season ceiling, those are the kinds of building blocks that can keep the season pointed in the right direction. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State Has A Homecoming Problem It Can't Afford Again
Homecoming weekend is supposed to bring a little extra energy, and Iowa State will need it when West Virginia brings a fast-moving offense into the building. Head coach Jimmy Rogers has spent the build-up talking about the problems his defense has to solve against quarterback Michael Hawkins and tailback Cam Cook, a pairing that can force a defense to think and react at top speed. For the Cyclones, the challenge is as much about communication as it is about talent, because the Mountaineers are the kind of team that punishes hesitation.
Rogers said the key is getting calls made quickly and keeping the tackling fundamentals clean, two areas that can decide whether a game stays manageable or starts slipping away in a hurry. Iowa State also heads into the matchup with the betting odds moving in its favor, which only sharpens the stakes for a home date it would prefer to control from the opening series. The Cyclones have the setting and the momentum on paper, but the test is whether they can match West Virginias pace when the game starts speeding up for real. [Read more 🡒]