Oklahoma State didn’t exactly enter the season with a lot of buzz, and that Week 1 loss to Tulsa only made the skepticism louder. But the Cowboys have flipped the script since then, piling up five wins in their next six games and suffering their only setback in a three-point loss to Houston.
Now they head into Week 9 with a chance to keep that run going against Iowa State, a 3-4 team that figures to face a tough test trying to slow down Oklahoma State’s passing game.
The engine for this Cowboys offense has been Drew Mestemaker, who has put together one of the most productive seasons in the country. He has completed 65.7% of his passes for 2,326 yards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. That yardage total ranks second in college football, and the numbers make the case pretty plainly: Oklahoma State’s ceiling is tied directly to how far Mestemaker can carry them.
This matchup lines up well for the Cowboys. Their passing attack has been the strength of the team all season, with Oklahoma State ranking 14th nationally in both EPA per pass and pass success rate. Iowa State, meanwhile, has struggled on the back end, sitting 106th in opponent EPA per pass and 103rd in defensive pass success rate.
That’s enough to make the Cowboys the side to back here. Oklahoma State looks built to exploit a shaky Iowa State secondary, and the passing edge is hard to ignore. The pick is to lay the points with Oklahoma State.
In Other News...
Iowa State Faces A Brutal Test As Injuries Keep Mounting
Drew Surges is back on the field for Iowa State, and the sight of the safety wearing a protective club on his right arm says plenty about how this season has gone. After breaking the arm earlier in the year, Surges has returned to play while the Cyclones keep grinding through a run of injuries that has thinned out the roster and made every week feel a little heavier. The challenge only gets steeper with No. 24 Oklahoma State coming next, another test in a schedule that has already asked a lot of this group.
Still, the message around the program has been about staying steady rather than feeling sorry for itself. Surges and head coach Jimmy Rogers have stressed resilience and preparation, with Iowa State trying to hold together through adversity and keep competing the way it wants to even when the lineup is less than full strength. For a team already dealing with a depleted roster, the question now is not just whether it can line up on Saturday, but how much more it can absorb before the grind starts to show. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State Defense Has One Urgent Problem Before Oklahoma State
Iowa States defense has spent much of this season trying to clean up the same issue, and it has shown up in the kind of way that changes games early. Recognition on the back end has been inconsistent, opponents have been able to score quickly, and those breakdowns have helped put the Cyclones in chase mode far too often. With the offense leaning so heavily on the run, that kind of start has made the margin for error awfully small.
Oklahoma State now brings the urgency into sharper focus. For Iowa State, this is the kind of matchup that can reveal whether the defense has truly settled in or is still living with the same problems that have contributed to multiple losses. If the Cyclones fall behind again, the pass game has not been reliable enough to offer much comfort, which only makes the pressure on that unit even more obvious. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State's Ceiling Still Comes Down To One Massive Backcourt Question
Iowa States place in Joe Lunardis latest bracketology comes with a familiar kind of optimism, as the Cyclones are projected as a No. 3 seed in the East Region and penciled in for a Round of 64 matchup with Harvard. If the bracket holds, Nebraska would be waiting in the next round, which is exactly the sort of path that invites bigger conversations about how high this roster can climb once March arrives.
At the center of those conversations is point guard Tamin Lipsey, whose potential fifth season remains tied up in a lawsuit in Indiana. For a team with real top-end aspirations, the issue is bigger than one players status because Lipseys return could shape the entire ceiling of the backcourt and, by extension, the Cyclones postseason outlook. Until theres clarity there, the most important question around Iowa State is less about where it is seeded and more about how complete it can be. [Read more 🡒]