Iowa State is sitting at the midway point of its season with a bye week to catch its breath, but the path to a bowl game looks anything but simple after a loss to BYU.
That wasn’t the expectation entering the year, either. There was real uncertainty around what this Cyclones team would look like after the roster got absolutely decimated in the transfer portal following the loss of Matt Campbell as their coach. Replacing all of that production was never going to be realistic.
Still, Jimmy Rogers and the staff found a way to piece together a roster, and the result has been a team that may lack the same talent as last season but keeps showing up. Iowa State has been competing week in and week out, and that effort has put one goal within reach: bowl eligibility.
The problem is the math is tight. The Cyclones need three more wins with six games left after the bye, and the schedule does not exactly roll out the red carpet.
It starts on the road against Arizona, a pretty good Wildcats team that will be a tough ask even with the extra week of preparation. Then Iowa State returns home for a matchup with Oklahoma State, and the Cowboys are surprisingly good and currently ranked in the Top 25. That’s another one where the Cyclones likely won’t be favored.
The stretch gets even less forgiving after that. Iowa State heads back on the road to face Baylor, and that’s another game where the Cyclones are not expected to be the favorite. It could be three straight losses coming out of the bye.
There is a lighter spot after that. The Cyclones host Cincinnati in what should be their easiest game of the first four and one they should win.
From there, the schedule sends Iowa State back on the road to meet UCF, where they’ll likely be an underdog again. The season ends with a game against Kansas State that looks like a toss-up.
So while bowl eligibility is still alive, there’s no clean road to six wins from here. Iowa State likely needs an upset somewhere in Big 12 play, and that will not come easy. Right now, it feels like the Cyclones may need to win one of their first three games after the bye just to keep that bowl pursuit on track.
In Other News...
Iowa State Just Lost A Weapon It Could Not Afford To Lose
A key piece of Iowa States depth chart went down in a way the Cyclones could not have wanted, with Dominic Overby suffering a season-ending knee injury in the game against BYU. Coach Rogers confirmed the news on the Iowa State Coaches Corner podcast, ending any suspense about Overbys status for the rest of the year.
Overby had been carving out an increasingly important role as both a wide receiver and a special teams contributor, making his absence more than just a loss of one body. For a team that was counting on reliable help in multiple phases, losing a player on that kind of upward trajectory changes the feel of the rotation and leaves Iowa State looking for answers it would rather not need this soon. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa States New Point Guard Faces A Tough Path To Minutes
Yusef Gray Jr. arrives in Ames with plenty to like about his game and not much certainty about his immediate role. The 6-4 point guard and Wisconsin Mr. Basketball finalist joins Iowa State after a shoulder injury cut short his senior season, but his profile still fits what the Cyclones tend to value: defense, competitiveness and enough scoring punch to make a backcourt assignment worth watching.
The challenge is the depth chart in front of him. Iowa State already has a crowded point guard room with injured and experienced players vying for minutes, so Grays path may be more about earning every opportunity than stepping into a defined role right away. Still, the Cyclones have seen young guards make real contributions before, and Gray has the kind of background that gives him a chance to do the same if the opening comes. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State Faces A Big 12 Gut Check After This Frustrating Break
A frustrating October break has given Iowa State time to sit with a loss that stung more than the final score. The Cyclones fell 24-10 to BYU on Oct. 9, slipping to 3-3 overall and 1-2 in Big 12 play, and now the bye week has to serve as both a reset and a reality check for a team that entered conference play with higher hopes.
The timing matters because the next chance to steady things does not come until Oct. 24 at Arizona, which leaves plenty of room for the disappointment to linger. For Iowa State, the pause also comes with a broader look ahead, including a 2026 schedule already in view, but the immediate concern is far more urgent: finding a way to turn a sluggish stretch into momentum before the league race keeps moving without it. [Read more 🡒]