Iowa State’s place in the latest Big 12 projection feels about right for a team that has stayed consistently dangerous under T.J. Otzelberger, even as the roster has shifted again.
Myron Medcalf of ESPN slotted the Cyclones at No. 5 in the conference’s cumulative rankings, one spot below where they finished last season. Iowa State wound up No. 4 through tiebreakers after a three-way tie with the Kansas Jayhawks and Texas Tech Red Raiders, and both of those teams are projected to land ahead of the Cyclones this time at Nos. 2 and 3.
The Arizona Wildcats are picked to win the league, with the Houston Cougars at No. 4.
The big-picture challenge for Iowa State is obvious: the roster has lost some serious names. Justin Jefferson is gone, along with Tamin Lipsey and Milan Momcilovic, which leaves the Cyclones without the kind of star power that has helped carry them in recent seasons.
Still, Otzelberger’s team shouldn’t be dismissed. Even with the turnover, Iowa State is returning the second-most points scored of any team in the league.
That mix of proven production and missing headline talent makes the Cyclones tough to pin down. The uncertainty only grows with the injury to Killyan Toure, who is expected to be out until January after shoulder surgery. He’s a major part of the plan entering his sophomore season and is regarded as one of the elite point-of-attack defenders in the sport.
Until Toure returns, Iowa State will need others to step into bigger roles in the backcourt. The pressure falls on transfer Jaquan Johnson, returning sophomore Jamarion Batemon and transfer Ryan Prather Jr. to help cover that gap.
The projection landscape across the Big 12 is also especially volatile because of the eligibility lawsuits swirling around the country. The 5-for-5 rule has triggered another wave of transfers, and the league has leaned into it more than anyone else, landing the most redshirt senior acquisitions in the nation with 12.
One of the most notable names in that group, Jaxon Kohler, ended up at BYU, which was projected at No. 6. Against that backdrop, Iowa State’s No. 5 spot looks like a fair snapshot of a team that still has enough returning production to stay in the mix, even if the roster doesn’t have the same star-driven feel as some of the Big 12’s top contenders.
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Iowa State May Be Showing Early Life In A Crucial QB Race
Iowa State is spending the early part of this rebuild trying to establish a new identity under Jimmy Rogers, and the quarterback room is one of the clearest places where that reset is taking shape. After the departures that followed Matt Campbells exit, the Cyclones are leaning on a young group at the position while also trying to keep future recruiting classes moving in the right direction, a delicate balance for a staff that is still filling in the edges of the roster.
One name worth watching is quarterback prospect Luke Toland, who already has multiple scholarship offers and a connection to new quarterbacks coach Keith Heckendorf. With limited commitments in the upcoming classes, the Cyclones cannot afford to be passive here, and the early work in the QB race may end up telling as much about the long-term direction of the program as the depth chart itself. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa States 2027 Commits Are Trending In Very Different Directions
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The bigger picture is still forming through their work with Team Herro on the Nike EYBL circuit, where summer performances are becoming a major part of how evaluators sort out the class. Kohnen, Davis and Harrington all logged enough visible run to factor into the conversation, and for Iowa State the intrigue is less about where the rankings stand today than how much they could keep shifting before this class is finished taking shape. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa State's Backfield Battle Could Shape Its Big 12 Chances
Fall camp has offered an early look at how Iowa State wants to build its offense under new head coach Jimmy Rogers and offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, and the backfield is already a focal point. Aiden Flora and Cameron Pettaway have had their practice reps managed to keep them fresh for the season, but both are expected to play major roles as runners and receivers in a group the Cyclones hope can do a lot more than just carry the load on early downs.
The depth behind them is part of what makes the position worth watching. Tulane transfer Arnold Barnes gives Iowa State another option to work into the mix, while Caleb Francois and Easton Miller are also expected to get opportunities. How that rotation settles in could wind up mattering far beyond camp, because the Cyclones are looking for a backfield that can stay healthy, stay versatile and give this offense enough balance to matter in Big 12 play. [Read more 🡒]