Coming off a tough loss at BYU where the Cyclones seemed a step behind, TJ Otzelburger’s squad is gearing up for the second leg of their Utah trip against a struggling Utah Utes team. With just two conference wins under their belt, the Utes present a prime opportunity for Iowa State to bounce back. Despite the inherent challenges of Big 12 road games, Iowa State is heavily favored, with ESPN analytics giving them a 90% chance of victory, and DraftKings setting a -13.5 spread, one of the largest for a road game in the conference.
Keeping Perspective
While some might be quick to hit the panic button, consider this: if you had told Cyclone fans that their team would go 2-1 against Kansas, Houston, and BYU, many would take that deal without hesitation. The loss to BYU highlighted potential pitfalls for March, but this Iowa State team still has the chops to compete with anyone and make a deep tournament run.
Breaking Down the BYU Game
What went wrong against BYU? Foul trouble for Momcilovic was a factor.
Limited to 25 minutes, he was pressured offensively, managing just five points on 1-5 shooting. A crucial 13-0 run by BYU in the second half sealed the Cyclones’ fate, a classic "Kill Shot" as some analysts might say.
But it wasn't all doom and gloom. Tamin Lipsey delivered one of his best performances, shooting 3-4 from beyond the arc, showcasing his dual-threat ability. Jamarion Batemon also stepped up, recording his second-highest scoring total in conference play, proving invaluable when the team needed him most.
Free Throw Improvement
Finally, some good news from the charity stripe! For the first time since their blowout against Kansas State, Iowa State shot over 70% from the free throw line.
In March, games can hinge on such details, and while fans hope to avoid a free throw battle, this performance might signal positive change. Fingers crossed.
The Utes' Struggles
Utah is not just struggling; they're driving the struggle bus. Ranked 117th in the NET and 107th on KenPom, the Utes have the second-worst scoring margin in the conference and sit at the bottom with a 2-12 record.
Historically, their basketball success has been limited, with just three NIT appearances in the last decade. This matchup marks only the fifth meeting between these schools.
Terrance Brown is the standout for the Utes, leading in points and assists with 20.2 and 3.8 per game, respectively. Keanu Dawes is a force on the boards, averaging 9.2 rebounds, while Don McHenry adds an impressive 17.4 points per game.
Keys to Victory for Iowa State
- Defensive Mastery from Lipsey and Toure: With Brown and McHenry combining for 37.6 points per game, the defensive skills of Lipsey and Toure will be crucial. Shutting down these threats could make it a long night for the Utes.
- Balanced Offensive Attack: A diverse offense is harder to defend.
In a recent game against Houston, five different players contributed to a decisive 17-4 run. Keeping everyone involved is key.
- Free Throw Focus: While not a make-or-break factor, strong free throw shooting can boost confidence as the season winds down. No team wants their March dreams dashed at the line.
Iowa State has shown they can dominate against lower-tier conference teams, and while road games always pose a challenge, a loss here would be a significant blemish. With the right focus, the Cyclones can solidify their standing and build momentum for the crucial games ahead.