Illinois State Men’s Basketball: A Promising Start, But the Redbirds Need More to Soar in the Valley
Illinois State wrapped up its non-conference slate with a mix of promise and growing pains. A perfect record at home and a title at the Terry’s Chocolate ESPN Events Invitational - including wins over Charlotte and Furman - gave the Redbirds a strong early-season boost.
But reality hit hard with a humbling loss to USC and a sloppy outing against Utah State. Now sitting at No. 100 in the KenPom rankings as of December 14, the Redbirds enter Missouri Valley Conference play with momentum, questions, and a whole lot of potential.
Let’s break down what’s working, what’s not, and what needs to change if Illinois State wants to make real noise in Arch Madness - and maybe, just maybe, punch a ticket to March.
High: The Freshman Class Is the Real Deal
Let’s start with the obvious bright spot - this freshman class is special. Head coach Ryan Pedon and his staff have shown a serious eye for talent, and the early returns are impressive.
The headliner is Ty’Reek Coleman. The former three-star recruit has stepped in and immediately become a difference-maker, averaging 11.9 points per game while shooting a scorching 55% from the field and 44% from beyond the arc.
But it’s not just the numbers - it’s how he gets them. Coleman attacks the rim with confidence, converting 62% of his shots at the rim despite standing just 6'2".
His ability to break down defenses and finish in traffic has been a lifeline for an offense that still leans heavily on perimeter shooting (42% of their shots come from deep).
Last season, if Chase Walker wasn’t producing in the post, ISU had no paint presence. This year, Coleman’s slashing gives the Redbirds a new dimension - one that’s already paying dividends.
Then there’s Mason Klabo, a former zero-star recruit who’s starting to carve out a role. In just 13 minutes per game, Klabo is averaging 5.7 points on 55.8% shooting. He’s efficient, aggressive, and showing flashes of becoming another long-term piece in Pedon’s system.
Two more freshmen - Isaac Ericksen and Nick Allen - are redshirting this season. If they develop as expected, this class could rival the impact of the Walker-Kinziger-Pence trio that helped lay the foundation for this current group.
Low: Jack Daugherty’s Shooting Slump
Last season, Jack Daugherty turned CEFCU Arena into his personal shooting gallery. Whether it was the seven threes against Bradley or the 10 (!) against Trinity, he was a fan favorite and a certified flamethrower.
This season? He’s shooting just 12-of-51 from three. That’s 23.5%, and it’s been tough to watch.
The issue isn’t mechanics - he hasn’t forgotten how to shoot. It’s confidence, plain and simple.
But in a deep rotation, minutes are earned, not given. And right now, Daugherty isn’t offering enough outside of his jumper to stay on the floor.
He’s played 12 minutes or fewer in seven games this year. With other players stepping up, Pedon has options - and that’s pushed Daugherty to the margins.
Still, if he can rediscover his rhythm, Daugherty could be the spark plug off the bench that changes games in March. But he’ll need to develop another tool in his kit to earn that opportunity back.
High: This Team Has Depth - Real Depth
Last year, Illinois State had a two-man show: Johnny Kinziger and Chase Walker. If either cooled off, the offense stalled. This year, it’s a different story.
ISU now has five players averaging double figures in scoring, and the third-option race is wide open between Coleman, Ty Pence, and transfer Boden Skunberg. That’s a good problem to have.
Even better? Ten players are averaging at least 11 minutes per game.
That kind of rotation depth is rare, especially in mid-major basketball. And it matters - especially in the Valley, where Arch Madness is a three-day gauntlet.
Pedon’s squad is built to withstand that kind of grind.
Low: Size - Or Lack Thereof - Is a Problem
The Redbirds’ backcourt of Kinziger and Coleman is electric, but it’s also undersized, both listed at six feet. The starting forwards are more guard than big, and Walker - the team’s lone true post presence - has struggled to stay out of foul trouble. When he’s off the floor, ISU gets exposed.
The Utah State game made that painfully clear. Illinois State was out-rebounded 33-18 and gave up 19 offensive boards. That’s not just losing the glass - that’s getting dominated.
Walker has picked up four or more fouls in six games this season, and the Redbirds are 3-3 in those contests. When he stays under three fouls, they’re undefeated. The numbers don’t lie - ISU needs him on the court.
But Walker can’t do it alone. He’s a force on offense but lacks the defensive instincts to anchor the paint solo.
The development of Cameron Barnes as a complementary big is critical. If he can step up, it changes the entire equation.
Where the Redbirds Stand in the MVC
Right now, it’s Belmont - and then everyone else.
The Bruins are off to a blistering 10-1 start, averaging 85.7 points and 18.7 assists per game. They’re shooting 52% from the field and nearly 39% from three. They move the ball, they shoot the lights out, and they’re long - their top six rotation players average over 6'6".
That’s a nightmare matchup for Illinois State, whose top six average closer to 6'4". Brandon Lieb and Walker struggle to defend on the perimeter, and Belmont’s bigs can stretch the floor. That’s a problem.
That said, ISU isn’t far off. They’ve got a deep rotation, a balanced scoring attack, and a coaching staff that knows how to adjust. But if they want to move from “good” to “great,” they’ll need to evolve.
What Needs to Happen Next
- Kinziger’s Role Must Grow
He’s taken over as the team’s primary facilitator, and while it’s not his natural position, he’s done a solid job - 3.0 assists to 2.1 turnovers per game. But if Pedon is going to keep him at the point, both numbers need to improve.
More creation, fewer giveaways.
- Walker Has to Stay on the Floor
Last season, ISU was 15-7 when Walker had three fouls or fewer. When he hit four or more?
Just 6-6. Opposing coaches know this and will attack him early and often.
Illinois State can’t afford to keep leaving him on an island.
- Daugherty Needs to Find His Stroke
Bench scoring wins games in March. If Daugherty can rediscover his rhythm and become a reliable shooter again, it gives ISU a game-changing weapon off the bench.
The emergence of Coleman and Skunberg has helped, but Daugherty’s return to form would be the final piece.
The Bottom Line
Illinois State has the tools to be a serious contender in the Missouri Valley. They’ve got depth, scoring, and a freshman class that looks like the future of the program. But in a league that’s likely a one-bid conference, good won’t be good enough.
To dance in March, the Redbirds need to be elite. That means solving the size issue, keeping Walker out of foul trouble, and getting more from their veterans. The path is there - now it’s on Pedon and his players to walk it.