With less than a month to go until Selection Sunday, you’d think the NCAA Tournament picture would be starting to crystallize. Instead, it’s more like trying to solve a jigsaw puzzle while someone keeps swapping out the pieces.
The bubble remains as volatile as ever, with 10 to 12 teams playing musical chairs on the edge of the bracket. But the real surprise?
Even the top seed line is still in flux, thanks to a late-season schedule that’s testing some of the nation’s best.
Let’s start with Duke. The Blue Devils dropped a high-profile battle to North Carolina, then bounced back with a solid home win over Clemson.
But the road ahead is anything but smooth. A showdown with Michigan looms, followed by a tough closing stretch against Virginia, NC State, and a rematch with the Tar Heels.
That’s a gauntlet that could either sharpen their resume or shake their standing.
Arizona, meanwhile, has taken a couple of hits. Their perfect record went out the window against Kansas, and then Texas Tech rolled into Tucson and handed them a second straight loss. Now, with BYU and Houston on tap this week, the Wildcats have to regroup fast if they want to hang onto a top seed.
Michigan’s schedule is no picnic either. They’re staring down Purdue and Duke this week before a late-month road trip to Illinois that could decide the Big Ten’s regular-season crown. And just when you thought things might stabilize, Tuesday brought a wave of chaos-losses from Nebraska, North Carolina, Illinois, and Iowa State all shook up the bracket.
So where does that leave us? Here’s how the projected field stacks up after a week that turned everything on its head:
Midwest Region (Chicago)
Buffalo Pod
**1.
Michigan** vs. **16.
Long Island**
**8.
NC State** vs. **9.
Indiana**
Portland Pod
**5.
Tennessee** vs. **12.
South Florida**
**4.
Michigan State** vs. **13.
Hawaii**
Tampa Pod
**6.
Louisville** vs. **11.
TCU / Santa Clara**
**3.
Florida** vs. **14.
High Point**
Oklahoma City Pod
**7.
Utah State** vs. **10.
Texas**
**2.
Houston** vs. **15.
Portland State**
East Region (Washington, D.C.)
Greenville Pod
**1.
Duke** vs. **16.
Navy / Bethune-Cookman**
**8.
Iowa** vs. **9.
Auburn**
Tampa Pod
**5.
North Carolina** vs. **12.
Liberty**
**4.
Vanderbilt** vs. **13.
UNC-Wilmington**
San Diego Pod
**6.
St. John's** vs.
11. UCLA
3. Texas Tech vs.
14. Wright State
St. Louis Pod
7. Kentucky vs.
10. SMU
2. Purdue vs.
15. Tennessee-Martin
West Region (San Jose)
San Diego Pod
**1.
Arizona** vs. **16.
NJIT / Morgan State**
**8.
Saint Mary’s** vs. **9.
Texas A&M**
Greenville Pod
**5.
Alabama** vs. **12.
Belmont**
**4.
Kansas** vs. **13.
Stephen F. Austin**
Portland Pod
**6.
BYU** vs. **11.
Georgia / Virginia Tech**
**3.
Gonzaga** vs. **14.
Austin Peay**
Buffalo Pod
**7.
Villanova** vs. **10.
Miami**
**2.
Illinois** vs. **15.
South Alabama**
South Region (Houston)
Philadelphia Pod
**1.
UConn** vs. **16.
Merrimack**
**8.
Wisconsin** vs. **9.
UCF**
Philadelphia Pod
**5.
Arkansas** vs. **12.
Yale**
**4.
Virginia** vs. **13.
Cal Baptist**
Oklahoma City Pod
**6.
Saint Louis** vs. **11.
Miami (OH)**
**3.
Nebraska** vs. **14.
North Dakota State**
St. Louis Pod
7. Clemson vs.
10. USC
2. Iowa State vs.
15. East Tennessee State
Bubble Watch
Last Four In:
- Georgia
- TCU
- Santa Clara
- Virginia Tech
First Four Out:
- Ohio State
- Missouri
- San Diego State
- New Mexico
Next Four Out:
- California
- West Virginia
- VCU
- Seton Hall
So here we are-four weeks out and the only thing that’s certain is uncertainty. The top seeds are still fighting for position, the bubble is bursting at the seams, and every game from here on out feels like it could tilt the balance.
Buckle up. March is coming, and it’s bringing chaos with it.