BYU enters Week 6 with a perfect record and a shiny No. 8 ranking, but Friday night’s trip to face Iowa State feels like the kind of game that can either keep the Cougars on the fast track or drag them into a grinder. They’re still undefeated, still in the Big 12 race, and still trying to prove they belong in the playoff conversation. Iowa State, meanwhile, is 3-2 under Jimmy Rogers and coming off a narrow three-point win over West Virginia in Week 5.
The Cyclones have already taken their lumps against ranked opponents. They’re 0-2 in those games this season, falling to Iowa and Utah, and they’re a clear road underdog here. That’s not exactly surprising against a BYU team that has covered every game so far, even if the Cougars haven’t exactly run through the schedule looking dominant.
A lot of the spotlight sits on Bear Bachmeier. He’s accounted for 10 total scores in four games, with six coming through the air and four on the ground, but he hasn’t exactly forced his way into the Heisman conversation.
His passing numbers are modest - 704 yards and six touchdowns - and last week in ugly weather against TCU, he managed only 62 passing yards. Still, the dual-threat element matters.
Bachmeier has added 130 rushing yards and four touchdowns, and with running back LJ Martin leaving last week’s game with an injury, BYU may need even more from its quarterback on Friday.
That’s where the matchup starts to tilt toward the Cougars. BYU ranks third in EPA/Rush and first in rush success rate, while Iowa State has been vulnerable on the ground, checking in 95th in EPA/Rush allowed. The Cyclones’ defense is 53rd in adjusted EPA/Play overall, so they’re not a disaster, but the run defense has been the soft spot.
The total also points toward a lower-scoring game. Iowa State’s two losses to ranked teams both stayed under 48.5 points, and the Cyclones have gone under that number in three of five games this season.
BYU, for its part, produced just 27 total points in bad weather last week against TCU and also came up short of that line against Arizona. Last year’s meeting between these teams produced 68 points, but that was a different Iowa State group, with Matt Campbell coaching and Rocco Becht at quarterback.
On paper, BYU should have enough to stay unbeaten. The Cougars may very well cover again, but the safer lean here is the UNDER. Iowa State’s offense has been ordinary, ranking 61st in EPA/Play and 93rd in third/fourth down success rate, and BYU’s defense looks equipped to keep that side of the ball in check.
In Other News...
Jaylen Raynor Is Giving Iowa State Fans A Real QB Debate
Iowa States 3-2 start has already given the Cyclones plenty to sort through, from a pair of losses to Utah and Iowa to wins over West Virginia, Bowling Green and Southeast Missouri State. One of the biggest developments has been at quarterback, where Jaylen Raynor, the Arkansas State transfer, worked through a rough opening stretch with shaky completion numbers and some interceptions before settling in and helping steady the offense.
What makes the conversation around Raynor more interesting now is how quickly his role is growing. His passing game is becoming a more important part of what Iowa State does each week, and the recent uptick has created a real debate for fans watching this offense take shape. The Cyclones are still early in the season, but the trajectory at quarterback has become one of the clearest reasons the rest of the schedule feels worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]
Former Cyclones Are Making Noise Across The NFL Right Now
A familiar Iowa State pipeline is showing up all over the NFL through the first month of the season. Ten former Cyclones were on the field in Week 4, logging snaps on offense, defense and special teams as they kept carving out roles for their pro teams. For a program that has sold itself on development for years, it was another reminder that Ames continues to send players into the league who are capable of contributing in a variety of ways.
The full Week 4 snapshot also included the less visible side of an NFL season, with some former Cyclones sidelined by injuries and others on injured reserve. Even so, the groups combined workload highlighted how widespread the Iowa State footprint has become on Sundays, from rotational pieces to bigger-minute contributors. For Cyclones fans tracking the alumni watch, it was one of those weeks that made it easy to see just how many former players are staying in the conversation. [Read more 🡒]
Jimmy Rogers Just Gave Iowa State Fans A Reason To Dream
Iowa State left Week 5 with more than a win over West Virginia. It also gave Jimmy Rogers his first Big 12 victory as head coach, a milestone that matters as much for the long view of the program as it does for the standings in early October. The Cyclones looked like a team that can still build something this season, and Aiden Floras five-touchdown eruption made sure the performance had the kind of punch fans remember.
Rogers has only had a short runway to put his stamp on the program, but victories like this can change the temperature around a season in a hurry. For Iowa State, the challenge now is turning one encouraging afternoon into something more durable, because one conference breakthrough is nice, but it also raises the question of how far this group can go if the offense keeps finding answers like it did against West Virginia. [Read more 🡒]