Baylor’s win over UCF did more than put another result in the books. It gave the oddsmakers something to chew on.
After the Bears rolled to a 41-9 victory in Joe Klanderman’s first game, FanDuel adjusted the conversation around Saturday’s Homecoming matchup with Iowa State in Waco, Texas. The spread for Nov. 7 is 50.5, and that number tells you plenty about how this one is being viewed.
The Bears are still carrying plenty of uncertainty, and the schedule isn’t doing them any favors. Iowa State is next, with BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston still ahead after that. Baylor’s path to the Big 12 Championship is still technically there, but the margin for error is thin.
Still, the UCF game offered a reminder of what this offense can look like when it gets rolling. Baylor once sat at an average of 38 points per game, and after losses to TCU and Kansas dragged that number down to around 30, the 41-point outburst nudged things back in the right direction. It wasn’t enough to erase the uneven stretch, but it was enough to make the market take notice.
Iowa State comes in with some momentum of its own after beating a recently resurging Oklahoma State team by exploiting weaknesses in the Pokes’ defense. But Baylor’s defense is a different animal. The Bears have allowed only 15 points per game, and that kind of pressure can change everything - especially if the Cyclones don’t get clean pockets or open rushing lanes.
That’s where this matchup starts to tilt. Baylor’s front has been disruptive all year, and the secondary is no easy place to work either.
Against UCF, the Bears sacked the Knights seven times and held them in check for most of the night. The only real blemish was a literal last-minute 56-yard scamper by the backup quarterback.
Outside of that, UCF had effectively no rushing yards.
That’s also why the total feels so high at 50.5. If Baylor plays this one the way it played UCF, the UNDER is very much in play.
The money line paints an even clearer picture. A $330 bet on Baylor would return a $100 profit, while a $100 bet on Kansas would net $265 in profit. The pricing shows the oddsmakers are fairly confident in Baylor’s chances.
And for good reason. Baylor should win this game, and win it pretty handily.
Iowa State may have just knocked off Oklahoma State, but it now has to deal with a Bears defense that lives in the backfield and a secondary that’s tough to challenge through the air. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does explain why the Bears are favored the way they are.
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The timing matters because Iowa States receiver room has been thinned by multiple season-ending injuries, leaving the offense searching for answers as the Big 12 grind continues. Polites emergence does not solve everything, but it gives the Cyclones a promising option at a position where they badly needed stability, and it could change how this offense looks moving forward. [Read more 🡒]