Bracketology Breakdown: Arizona Slides, Texas Tech Surges, and Florida’s Quiet Climb Continues
We're in the thick of February, and that means one thing for college hoops fans: every game is a resume builder - or buster. Saturday's slate shook up the projected NCAA Tournament seed lines, with Arizona taking a stumble, Texas Tech making a statement, and Florida quietly turning into one of the sport’s most efficient machines.
Let’s break down where things stand as the bracket picture continues to evolve.
Arizona Still a No. 1 Seed - But Barely
Arizona may still be clinging to a No. 1 seed in CBS Sports’ Bracketology model, but the grip is loosening. After a second straight loss - this time a 78-75 overtime heartbreaker at home to Texas Tech - the Wildcats dropped to the third overall No. 1 seed. They now trail both Michigan and Duke in the pecking order.
At 23-2 overall and 10-2 in Big 12 play, Arizona still has a strong resume, but the margin for error is shrinking. The loss to the Red Raiders doesn’t knock them off the top line, but it does raise questions about whether they can hold onto that spot with a surging pack behind them.
Duke Asserting Itself as a Top Contender
Duke continues to look every bit the part of a No. 1 seed, and the metrics agree. After a 67-54 win over Clemson, the Blue Devils now sit firmly as the No. 2 overall team in the Bracketology model, behind only Michigan.
What’s driving the Blue Devils’ rise? A combination of resume strength and predictive dominance.
They’re No. 2 in WAB (Wins Above Bubble), which evaluates the quality of wins relative to expectations, and they also sit No. 2 in KenPom, a key predictive metric used by the NCAA selection committee. That’s a tough combination to argue with.
Iowa State Back on the 2-Line After Blowing Out Kansas
Iowa State made a loud statement with a 74-56 dismantling of Kansas, and the Bracketology model took notice. The Cyclones jumped back up to a No. 2 seed, pushing Illinois down to the 3-line - at least for now.
At 22-3 overall and 9-3 in the Big 12, Iowa State is building a case not just for a high seed, but for serious tournament credibility. Their next test? A marquee home matchup Monday night against Houston - a game that could have major implications for both teams’ seeding outlooks.
Houston Holding Steady on the Top Line
Houston isn’t going anywhere - at least not yet. The Cougars took care of business with a 78-64 win over Kansas State and remain the fourth No. 1 seed in the latest projection.
The Cougars continue to blend physical defense with efficient scoring, and they’ve done enough to stay in that top tier. But with Iowa State looming on Monday, Houston’s hold on that No. 1 seed could be tested in a big way.
Texas Tech’s Road Statement Vaults Them to a 3-Seed
Texas Tech didn’t just beat Arizona - they reshaped their own tournament trajectory. The Red Raiders entered Saturday projected to hover around the No. 4 seed line, but the upset win in Tucson catapulted them all the way to the final No. 3 seed.
The resume is starting to look elite. Texas Tech now owns wins over three of the four projected No. 1 seeds - that’s as strong a trio of victories as any team in the country. And the metrics back it up: they jumped from No. 15 to No. 11 in WAB and climbed six spots to No. 16 in KenPom.
This is a team that’s peaking at the right time and building a profile that screams “dangerous March draw.”
Florida Quietly Becoming a Force
Florida might not be grabbing national headlines, but they’re quietly stacking wins - and metrics - that make them a team to watch. After a 92-83 victory over Kentucky, the Gators moved up one spot in WAB (from 14th to 13th) and held firm as a No. 3 seed.
But here’s the thing: Florida is starting to look like a team that deserves even more respect. They’re now alone atop the SEC standings at 19-6 (10-2 in conference), and according to barttorvik.com, they’re neck and neck with Houston as the most efficient team in the country over the past six weeks.
Sure, four early-season losses are still weighing down their resume metrics, but the eye test - and the analytics - are starting to align. Florida is surging, and their placement in next Saturday’s NCAA top 16 reveal could be one of the biggest talking points of the week.
Where Things Stand Now
As of Sunday, here’s how the top of the bracket stacks up in CBS Sports’ latest projection:
- No. 1 Seeds: Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Houston
- No. 2 Seeds: Iowa State, [TBD], [TBD], [TBD]
- No. 3 Seeds: Texas Tech, Florida, Illinois (pending Sunday’s results), [TBD]
With conference races heating up and statement wins starting to pile up, the margin between the top lines is razor thin. Every game from here on out has the potential to shift the landscape - and Saturday was a prime example.
March may still be a few weeks away, but the madness is already here.