Week 4 is the kind of slate that starts separating the comfortable favorites from the teams that still have some questions hanging over them. And after a 1-2 showing last week, with Mississippi State cashing against South Carolina and Houston coming up just short against Texas Tech, the upset board is back with three targets.
The headliner is Tennessee over Texas.
That call starts with the Longhorns offense, which has not matched the preseason buzz around Manning. Texas is averaging just 5.3 yards per play, good for 78th in the nation, and last week against UTSA, Manning threw for only 164 yards on 4.9 yards per pass attempt.
The run game has helped keep things steady so far, but that safety net gets a lot thinner against Tennessee. The Volunteers are rolling at 6.6 yards per play, which ranks 18th nationally, and they’ve put up 42 or more points in each of their first three games.
With Tennessee at home, that’s the upset play.
The second pick stays in the Big Ten, where Iowa gets the nod over Michigan on the moneyline. Western Michigan still lingers as a warning sign here, and the argument is that Michigan still isn’t being priced like the team it has actually shown itself to be.
The Wolverines’ offense sits 74th in the country in yards per play at 5.4 per snap, and now it runs into an Iowa defense that has been suffocating opponents, ranking second nationally in yards per play allowed at just 3.3 per snap. That sets up the kind of low-scoring fight Iowa usually wants.
In that kind of game, the pick is to side with the team that embraces it.
The third upset play is Tulsa over Arkansas.
Arkansas has already been a team worth betting against this season, and this one takes that a step further by backing the Golden Hurricane outright as a 7-point underdog. Tulsa’s advanced metrics were strong a year ago, and the start to the 2026 season has only added to the case.
They’re 3-0, and that includes a 24-10 win over Oklahoma State. The logic is simple enough: if Tulsa can beat the Cowboys, it can beat the Razorbacks.
Those are the three upset spots for Week 4: Tennessee, Iowa, and Tulsa.
In Other News...
Braeden Jackson Just Added To Iowas Walk-On Tradition
Braeden Jacksons name already carries some football weight in Iowa circles, and now the walk-on running back has given Hawkeye fans another reminder of why that tradition still resonates. In a notable game, he flashed the kind of burst and versatility that can turn a roster afterthought into a real storyline, piling up 125 rushing yards, adding 24 more as a receiver and finding the end zone twice.
It fits the family history, too. Jackson is the son of Fred Jackson, the former Coe College standout who went from unrecruited long shot to a nine-season NFL career with the Buffalo Bills, and Braeden followed a similarly determined path after a strong high school career as both a football player and track star. He chose to walk on at Iowa in part because of his fathers connection to the coaching staff, and performances like this only deepen the sense that the Hawkeyes may have found another name worth remembering. [Read more 🡒]
Braeden Jackson Just Made Iowas Backfield Picture A Lot Tougher
Braeden Jackson turned a lopsided afternoon into something worth watching for Iowa. In the Hawkeyes 55-0 win over Northern Iowa, the second-year running back piled up 125 rushing yards and scored two touchdowns, continuing the kind of steady rise that has made him easy to notice in a crowded backfield. A preferred walk-on who arrived in December 2024, Jackson has been one of the quieter development stories on the roster, but his progress has been hard to miss.
What stands out most is how much cleaner and more complete his game looks now. Iowa quarterback Hank Brown and head coach Kirk Ferentz have both pointed to Jacksons improved awareness and physical development, and his background helps explain why he keeps trending up. As the son of former NFL running back Fred Jackson, he has had the benefit of football knowledge at home, and it is starting to show on the field in a way that could make the Hawkeyes backfield even harder to sort out. [Read more 🡒]
Ferentz Sends Iowa Fans A Promising Message Before Michigan Test
Iowa is heading into its first Big Ten game of the season with a familiar kind of test waiting on the other side, and Kirk Ferentz spent part of the buildup offering a reassuring look at his roster. The Hawkeyes are set to face No. 18 Michigan on Sept. 26, and Ferentz said the recovery process is moving in the right direction for several key players, including Kamari Moulton and Bryce Hawthorne, as the team tries to get healthier at an important point on the schedule.
The matchup itself brings the bigger challenge, of course, and Ferentz made clear that Iowa will need its defense locked in against a Michigan offense led by quarterback Bryce Underwood. For a Hawkeyes team trying to open conference play on solid footing, the combination of improved health and a stern test against a ranked opponent gives this week a little extra weight, even before the game kicks off. [Read more 🡒]