Ohio State basketball is set to face the Iowa Hawkeyes tonight in Iowa City at 9 PM ET. The Buckeyes are on a mission to secure their first NCAA NET Quad 1 victory of the season.
Their recent six-point loss to Michigan State in East Lansing left them at 0-9 in Quad 1 games, with six of those losses by single digits. As they face Iowa, their postseason dreams hang in the balance.
Can Ohio State finally notch a signature win to bolster their March Madness hopes?
It’s a tall order. The Buckeyes enter as 7.5-point underdogs, facing the challenge of a raucous Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The question is whether Bruce Thornton and his teammates can rise to the occasion against a formidable Iowa squad.
Here's what needs to happen for Ohio State to pull off the upset:
Contain Bennett Stirtz
Iowa's team dynamics are strikingly similar to Ohio State’s. Bennett Stirtz is the Hawkeyes' linchpin, leading in points, assists, and steals, with averages of 20.6 points, 4.5 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. His nearly 40 percent shooting from three-point range on high volume only adds to his threat.
In Iowa’s losses this season, Stirtz has either struggled with his shot or been effectively neutralized. Ohio State must find a way to disrupt his rhythm, forcing other Hawkeyes to shoulder the scoring burden-a role they’re not accustomed to, given Stirtz’s dominance in shot attempts. Making him uncomfortable is key for the Buckeyes.
Offensive Contributions from Devin Royal and Amare Bynum
Royal’s absence due to illness was felt in the Michigan State game, where Thornton alone contributed 32 of Ohio State’s 60 points. Christoph Tilly was the only other player in double figures with 10 points.
That scenario can’t repeat itself.
For Ohio State to triumph in Iowa City, Bynum needs to rebound from his scoreless outing against Michigan State, where he went 0 for 5. Royal must also make his presence known, similar to his standout performance against Wisconsin, where he scored 25 points to lead the Buckeyes to a 17-point victory over a ranked Badgers team.
Thornton will likely deliver his usual 20-plus points, but the Buckeyes need Bynum, Royal, or another player to step up. Head Coach Jake Diebler has likely emphasized this all week.
Pressure Iowa’s Defense from Beyond the Arc
In all eight of Iowa's losses this season, opponents have shot at least 25% from three-point range, with six teams shooting over 33%. Wisconsin hit 42%, while Purdue managed 40% and 43% in two encounters. Maryland, Illinois, and Iowa State also found success from deep.
Ohio State must capitalize on their three-point shooting tonight. They’re hitting 34.3% from deep this season, ranking 10th in the Big Ten.
They caught fire against Wisconsin, shooting 52% from three, with Bynum and Royal combining for seven makes. However, they followed that with a dismal 4 for 22 performance against Michigan State, shooting just 18%.
The Buckeyes need to find their rhythm, trust their ball movement, and knock down open shots. Iowa’s defense has shown vulnerabilities, presenting opportunities for Ohio State to score. If they can stay composed and hit their threes, they’ll have a real shot at securing the crucial win they’re chasing at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.